Research On The Volatility Of Shanghai Stock Aggregate Index And Management Of Investment Funds

Stock index is a comprehensive reflection to the aggregate value of listed stock. Research on the volatility of stock index be to the judgment of the index number trend,which is the problem carries on a stock market to invest initial consideration. Management of investment funds is related to how and when to buy or sale, Management of investment funds is related to how much to buy or sale.Research on the volatility of stock index and management of investment funds is related to control investment risk and the rate of return size, as a result it become the point of the research on investment in stock.This thesis researched on Shanghai stock aggregate index which is a comprehensive reflection to the aggregate value of listed stock in Shanghai Stock Exchanget, so that it's study is a strategic research work which invests Chinese stock market to share a result of Chinese economy development.The economist carried on a theories research on the stock market and the stock investment, which implying volatility concept is Dow Jones' Theories, Wave Principle, John's Theories, Business Cycle Theories, Turnover Push Theories, especially etc.. Fuether more, became lots' of method to estimate index number motion, such as MACD theories, KDJ technique, BOOL technique. These above-mentioned methods, useing the price which undulates according to single influence index number variety trend's factor to carry on an estimate.This thesis established a combined model of the stock index volatility on the foundation of the past study results, this model at consideration index number trend impact factor up, lead to factor which can undulate into the influence index number and can be turned a representative, such as time factor, currency value factor, economic aggregate factor, trade funds factor, interest rate and PE factor, so that build up combined non-linear model.This thesis use Gauss-Newton method through the data the years up of the stock index and main impact factor adoption least square fitting carried on a empirical study of Shanghai stock aggregate index, which is based on combined model of the stock index volatility.This thesis carried on a study of how to establish the management of investment funds based on the combined non-linear model of Shanghai stock aggregate index, applying the assistance condition and the scope of investment funds, further to carry on a researched on management style for investment funds, carried on an outlook to the Chinese stock market and Shanghai stock aggregate index in the future.