Application Of Time Series Analysis In Forecast GDP Of Jilin Province

In the process of developing national economy, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is inevitably an important criterion for judging the overall national strength. Gross Domestic Product, commonly regarded as the best criterion for evaluating the national economy, refers to the overall final products and services produced in the economy of a nation or a region in a certain amount of time (a quarter or a year). This criterion not only summarizes all the outcomes produced in the activities of national economy as an extremely precise statistics, but also provides for the most comprehensive measurement to evaluate or judge the national economy, the tendency of economic growth and the economic expression of social wealth. It is the most important economic criterion to influence the economy and society. It has great theoretical and realistic significance to analyze and forecast this criterion. However, the GDP of a nation is composed by the production of each province.Therefore, studying the gross provincial product imposes crucial effects on studying the GDP of the whole national economy.Time series refers to a series of number got by observing the same phenomenon in different period of time. The predicting way of time series is achieved by exploring the laws that phenomenal change with time, in the historical statistics of time series. Time series extend the laws to the future so as to predict the future of a phenomenon. The traditional analytical method of time series analysis applied in economy is mainly the analytical method of time series in a fixed time, such as Exponential Smoothing method,Moving Average method,Decomposition of the time series and so on. With the development of society, many uncertain elements impose influences on economy, which should be attached importance to people. In 1970, Box and Jenkins proposed an analytical method of time series based on random theory which not only takes the theory of time series analysis to a new level but also promotes the preciseness of prediction. The basic analytical models of time series are ARMA Model and ARIMA Model.This thesis based on the theory of time series, sets up a time series model, evaluates the model and finally finds a proper model by exploring the gross product of Jilin province from 1952 to 2007.Excel and SAS software is applied in this paper. It makes the best of the model to make a prediction on the gross provincial product of Jilin in the coming five years.