Study On Electric Quantity Disposition Issues Of Hydropower Marketing Operation

Based on the theory and method of Hybrid Genetic Algorithm, this paper conducted systematic research and intensive study of power quantity distribution at the background of hydropower participating in future market and spot market, which is guided by power market theory and microeconomics theory. Firstly, the dividing model of hydropower quantity in future market and spot market was built based on the probability characteristic of generation process, and the ratio of future power quantity and spot power quantity was researched; secondly, the annual future power quantity decomposition model based on maximal economic benefit was established, and the risk caused by uncertainty factors was solved by the application of FOSM method, which finally determined the quantitatively relationship between decomposition of annual future power quantity and risk; furthermore, the power quantity decomposition model was built according to prediction of real time price; finally, the risk of power decomposition of spot market was analyzed based on Monte Carlo model in runoff forecasting.It has been proved by case that the method in this paper proposed matches the truth, combined hydrology with meteorology, which provided an efficient and feasible path and method in hydropower quantity decomposition in future and spot market. Further, this paper provided basis for the quantitative relation between economic interest and risk of power station, which is benefit for market participants avoid risk and make proper price decision according to its own specific conditions.