Research Market Of Bulk Shipping Base On VAR Model

International dry bulk shipping market is one market with high competition, complicated environment, and special risks. Political events, economical changes, and natural factors all cause different effect upon the trend of international dry bulk shipping market, and then increase the operating risks for shipping enterprises. Therefore it is very important for the operating and development of international dry bulk industry to analyze the changes in dry bulk shipping market and get the rules of market development.This paper analysis the international dry bulk shipping market in recent years and related market developments with a qualitative analysis .at the same time, with a focus on dry bulk shipping market on the level of charter and other relevant market Interaction, use of an econometric model of vector autoregressive model, from both qualitative and quantitative proof of the shipping market and the relationship between the relevant market. In this paper, analysis the Granger Causality between the time charter market and other relevant shipping market, co-integration relations and study how move the time charter market when the relevant market changes through the impulse response function. Results from the study can be seen, timecharte rental and shipping prices, shipping between the index formed a two-way causal relationship. And international trade markets, crude oil prices will indirectly through other market on time charter market. The results show pulse function of the big ship, rent levels are relatively stable, have a strong self-adjustment ability, and the small boat rental prices on the degree of self-regulation rather poor. Finally, since the vector regression model more precise simulation of the ship of the timecharte rental level of the trend. These are the conclusions of the dry bulk shipping companies in the treacherous market in the development of a reasonable business strategy has certain decision-making role.