The Research About Factors' Analyzing And Rationalization Of The Scale Of Foreign Exchange Reserves

The rapid growth of China's foreign exchange reserves(FER) becomes a dramatic event, and triggered extensive discussions and debates of domestic and international political and economic circles. Although more and more FER in China ensure the smooth progress of international trade and international economic exchanges, they have brought many problems: the more FER, the more idle resources; inefficient use and the opportunity cost increases; they bring to the pressure of RMB revaluation and affect export sector development; the growth of FER increases the throwing-in of the foundation currency, resulting in the excess liquidity at the money market and inflation; the exchange rate's fluctuations intensify, increasing more risks. In light of these problems, the author use the approach of qualitative and quantitative analysis to research, and in empirical researches the author apply the method-time series analysis. Through researching, the author consider that the continuing rapid growth of exports and foreign direct investment is the most important reason for continuing rapid growth of FER. That China's opening to the outside world is deepening and that the speed of GDP's growth is constantly high are objective reasons for continuing rapid growth of FER. The RMB exchange rate and China's FER influence and supervise each other. The increasing FER lead to the increasing of the foundation currency. With the in-depth research, combining with the understanding of appropriate scale of the reserves on the theoretical circles at home and abroad, we calculate them, and get the results that China's FER since 2005 are over the balance. To the problem of excess FER, the author believes that our country should adopt a variety of policy instruments to change the status of a single currency of China's foreign currencies; that we should speed up reforming of the exchange rate system and steadily transfer to the floating exchange rate system; that we should also speed up the process of marketization of interest rates; that our government should establish FER' "strategic development fund", while strengthening the people's external financial awareness, so that we can preserve and raise the real values of the increasing FER; in addition, China should make full use of the advantages of sufficient foreign exchange to improve the structure of imports and promote industrial upgrading, enhancing the contribution of economic growth.