Research On The Effect Of Interest Rates Floating On Rural Credit Demand Side In Hubei Province

The prominent characteristic of interest rates marketization is to allow the interest rates of large loans and deposit to float freely. The interest rates floating not only helps strengthen the fund strength of the rural finance organization, but also optimize the financing environment for credit entities. At the same time, however, it could also bring the interest risk for the rural finance organization and increase the cost of agricultural loan. Aiming to the interest rate pricing in rural credit market, the dissertation empirically analyze the effect of rate floating on peasant household's saving, consumption, financing, and township enterprises financing in Hubei province, which help explain the rural financial market environment in Hubei province after implementing interest rates marketization.In view of the unique financing environment in Hubei countryside, this paper has mainly studied five questions. The basic contents and conclusions are summarized as follows:Firstly, analyzing the interest rate trend of a part of developed and developing country on implementing interert rate liberalization, and summarizing the next direction of interest rate in China. The advance and evolution of interert rates markerization reform in China was also induced. Unified interest rate fixed price pattern which the Hubei province credit market uses at present, the Hubei interest rate of the rural credit co-operative system (RCC) fixed price trend in the future was analyzed.Secondly, according to peak and valley of rate adjustment, three time interval was differentiated. Then the relationship of the savings, the agricultural GDP, the inflation to be accompanied by the nominal rate and the real interest rate was investigated respectively. Carrying on the regression analysis to this model finally discovered that the permission deposit interest rate based on this fluctuation could not influence on peasant houeshold's deposit to the countryside credit market. Again return the result from the deposit and the income function as well as the Hubei countryside resident to the future revenue and the expenditure anticipated uncertainty two aspect to carry on the additional remarks.Thirdly, established the model on the Hubei countryside resident average per person expense and per income, which relates with the norminal rate, then dispel in the time series different variance phenomenon. Permanent income hypothesis throry which proposed based on Fredmann launches the analysis from the Hubei peasant household boundary expense tredency angle. In the end, indicated that the influent of the interest rate marketization reform on the Hubei peasant household's expense is also very limited in fact.Forthly, based on Hubei peasant household dynamic response market access and repayment mechamism, then according to supposition of the"rational person", the dymamic choice behavior which financed to the peasant household has carried on the analysis. It is discovered that the RCC implemented the fluctuation interest rate to be able to reduce the behavior and to optimize the countryside credit environment. Caused the RCC's loan fixed price and the interest rate management trend rationality. Pursued the high interest rates blindly the phenomenon reduction, which was advantageous in alleviate peasant household's loan difficult question.Finally, from cost-benefit angle carry on the analysis to the township enterprises'profit, loss and wish etc. after Hubei RCC system implemented fluatuating interest rate, and then established the related model under the quite weak supposition condition. The township enterprises according to the degree of companison divided the different rank of enterprise rate.The advantages which bring to the rural enterprise carries on the comparision to the interest rates fluctuated to the Hubei township enterprised financing environment fuaction of optimization aspect.