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Evaluation And Forecast Of Harmony Development In Wuhan

Posted on:2008-08-17Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:L ChenFull Text:PDF
GTID:2189360272468966Subject:Environmental Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the rapid development of economy, ecological environment come to have a harm effect on the economic development, which attracts people's attention. How to coordinate the development between social development, economic development, resource protection and environment protection to reduce the destruction of ecological environment in the economic development has become a subject that is discussed forever.City is a complex ecosystem of economy-society-nature, and the urban environment is a supporting system for the sustainable development of city. City ecological sustainable development (CESD) ensure urban environment not to destroy and it maintain the city sustainer, healthiness and sequence development. Harmonize development is the most important of the CESD. In addition, it has a close relationship between harmoniousness and coordinated index of city. The contradiction between social development, economic development, resource protection and environment protection are outstanding increasingly. The coordinated development of society, economy, resource and environment is not only the core but also the essence of sustainable development.In the angle of systems science, this thesis treats society, economy, resource and environment as an integer, provides a demonstration study on Wuhan city. In the very first place, on the basis of expatiating the importance of indicators system and design principle, a coordinated development indicators system for society, economy, resource and environment of Wuhan has been established. The coordinated development indicators system is made up of system layer, rule layer and indicators layer.Based on com-ecosystem, dissipative structure theory, Shannon entropy principle and Support Vector Machine (SVM), with calculating eco-economy entropy , eco-function entropy and urban ecosystem entropy, this paper analyzes the dynamic evolvement's rule of urban ecosystem. A quantitative model of urban harmony development evaluation has been set up by the indexes of integrated development degree and harmony development degree. Taking Wuhan's urban ecosystem from 1988 to 2004 as an example, the result indicates: (1) After four-years stagnate period, the harmony development level has changed from serious inconsistent to primary-harmony in Wuhan, and kept middle-harmony in 2004. But the index value is on the low side. (2)By forecasting of SVM, from 2013, it will be holding well-harmony and the index will improve continuously, and it will be close to high-quality-harmony in 2020.In addition, we used Support Vector Machine (SVM) to forecast the trend of integrated development degree and harmony development degree. As a popular arithmetic for data mining, SVM has drawn much attention on this topic in recent years for its stabile basis in theory and good generalization. SVM is the hot issue accompanying artificial neural network in machine learning. It involves any practical problems such as classification and regression estimation. Based on the programming and forecast able value, it could not attain high-quality-harmony in 2020. Because the programming value is higher than forecasting value, this paper suggests that the government must adjust the development route in the future and attach importance to environment for the healthiness and harmonize development in Wuhan.At the end, on the basis of analyzing the actuality of society, economy, resource and environment in Wuhan and the result of estimating and forecasting model, we put forward countermeasure that consulted evaluated results and forecasted results to guide Wuhan city to construct ecosystem, so as to bring the society, economy, resource and environment of Wuhan to the road of coordinated development, and precipitate Wuhan to become the important tactic pivot of China's midland rising.
Keywords/Search Tags:City-ecosystem, Harmony Development Estimate, Forecast, Shannon Entropy, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Wuhan
PDF Full Text Request
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