The Relationship Between Housing Price And Land Price: Logical Analysis, Theory Model And Data Test

In recent years, with the generally rapid rise of national housing prices and innovation of land transfer mode, the debate on the correlation of housing prices and land prices between theoretical circles and practical ones is very fierce. And the Empirical Study on the correlation is the key to judge each party's view to be right or not. On the foundation of the domestic and international research results of the correlation between housing prices and land prices, this paper systematically analyses the internal interaction mechanism directed towards the status and characteristics of china's housing market and land market. Moreover, with housing sales prices index and land dealing prices index's time-series data from first season of 1999 to third season of 2007 in national and 35 large and medium cities; this paper takes use of modern dynamic measurement methods and quantitatively describes the relations between housing prices and land prices as well as carry on systematically analysis on the results with the theoretical knowledge of housing economics. In the concludes, relevant policies and suggestions are put forward. The result shows that, the changes of national housing sales prices index and land dealing prices index have the same trend during the period of samples, both of which have the obvious time tendency, showing a rise trend in the wave-like characteristics, especially in recent years, the growth has accelerated noticeably, preserving and increasing the value of housing turn out to be a Long-term trends. The housing market has clear regional characteristics, the distinct of housing and lands'prices growth rate between the cities are gradually increasing, at the same time, the land prices and housing prices around the growth appears the trend of differentiation, and the variation of land prices are much larger than the housing, and regional characteristics of the land market turn out to be more evident. Cointegration tests and error correction model shows that: the relationship of China's housing and land prices in short or long-term is inconsistent. In the long run, there is an equilibrium relationship between the housing prices and land prices, when land prices changes one percentage point, housing prices will be about to change 0.853 percentage points with the same tendency; while in the short term, when the land prices changes one percentage point, the housing prices changes will be about positive 0.736 percentage point, the long-term impact of land prices is more significant to the housing prices; on the other hand, the short-term impact of housing is on a very small premium to the land prices. Granger causality tests results shows that: in the short-term, there is existing only a one-way causal relationship between housing and land prices; while, in the long-term, housing and land prices have the two-way causal relationship. Through testing the data of thirty large and medium-sized cities, we find that, the relationship of housing prices and land prices are complex and varied among these cities, but which of most of the cities are basically according with the conclusions of national-wide, that is, in the short-term, there is existing only a one-way causal relationship between housing and land prices; while, in the long-term, housing and land prices have the two-way causal relationship. In addition, the test results also shows that the housing market demand are vigorous , in the regions with high degree of speculation, the prices is not easy to performance smoothly.