| In February 2007, New Century Financial Corporation, the second largest subprime loan institutions in the United States, announced that the financial performance of the fourth quarter of 2006 is a loss, and sub-prime crisis in the US surfaced. In the following one year more, the risks of sub-loan fully exposed to the public. Mortgage companies are all on the verge of bankruptcy, and the hedge fund is forced liquidation. Investment banks announced a loss. Commercial banks and insurance agencies also have suffered heavy losses. Global stock markets fell, credit risk induced by sub-loan eventually evolved into a global financial crisis. So far, the crisis whose results are unexpected is still continuing. The impact of the crisis will be extremely far-reaching. Studying the causes of the current round of subprime crisis will enable us to draw lessons from it. The lesson is that in the positive development of real estate and financial markets, we should approach to the risks accumulated rationally and prudently, strengthen the awareness of preventing risks, improve the capabilities of risk management in order to ensure the stable and healthy development of Chinese economy.This financial crisis originates in the US subprime lending crisis, Interpretation of the crisis is a key to understand the crisis. Evolvement, basic causes and interest motivation and features of American economy, society and politics constitute basic background of the crisis. The paper collects literature materials in this field to conduct the orientation and content of the study. In analysis of related situation, academic achievement and conclusions in related fields are quoted. By positivist study and case study, it summarizes lots of literatures and analyzes it by economic tools. A comparative analysis is drawn between the current situation of Chinese economy and development mode of estate and finance and those of the US to improve the risk control of Chinese economy and finance. According to the proposal of the thesis, it does profound consideration in the causes of the subprime crisis and accumulates related materials to contribute to the stable and healthy development of economy, estate and capital market in China. In the analysis of its impact on Chinese economy and finance, it inclines on the features of Chinese economy development and structure, and the nature of international business in China. The analysis is done on the internal logic of America combining the fact in China.This thesis carries on a qualitative analysis on the US subprime lending crisis. First it introduces details of crisis evolution and development to a global financial crisis. Then it analyzes economical essence of the crisis, which is"financial innovation"under the financial liberalization and attenuated supervision, as well as the model of US economic structure and consumption structure. From the micro aspect, the origin of subprime crisis is that the transparency of US financial product market price is insufficient; weakness and absence of government supervision; The misappropriating operation of banks and financial institutions and property securitization enlarged the subprime lending crisis's range of influence; America's stimulus policy to economy is the leading cause; scale of securitized mortgage loan expanded; Market interest rate rises. Then the Wall Street finance elites'"effect of motive black hand"and its spread in the world has been further analyzed.Based on it, China's export-oriented economy and characteristics of its contribution to economic growth, especially the Sino-US trade, have determined that its impact on China will be very profound, not only to the current account, proprietary account, financial account, but also to the foreign exchange reserve, bringing indirect impact on stability of Chinese finance market. It has impact on China's present and long-term macro economic orientation. At the same time, it provides precious reference to a series of security problem and security strategy of Chinese financial supervision and has significant value and enlightens to long-term economic development strategy, structural adjustment strategy and industrial promotion plan.The impact on China's economy mainly comes from an analysis of these six aspects: 1) China faces the cost-push inflation; 2) China's exports to the United States will slow down; 3) Subprime crisis led to depreciation of dollar, weaken China's economy; 4) Impact of foreign-invested enterprises; 5) Impact of China's financial market; 6) Impact of macro-control on the country's economic.There are great value and inspiration on the implementation of our long-term strategy of economic development, structural adjustment strategy and industrial revitalization strategy.1) Enlightenment on China's scientific macroeconomic regulation and control focuses on three aspects: First, it is necessary to integrate the property price into the Central Bank's supervising object when implementing monetary policy; especially the monitoring activities of asset price changing are seen as signals of macroeconomic policy. With the alteration of asset price and amplitude changing posture in disguised form of aggregate demand or supply, in order to find out important basis for the amendments of monetary policy resulting in concern about the rate of inflation and the link of main asset prices. Secondly, possible negative impact brought by macroeconomic control must be considered when macroeconomic control is carried on; At the same time, government should give full consideration of the policy itself time-delay and offset effect. Thirdly, the government do not provide the rescue easily to the crisis. Government should be followed in the conduct of not distorting the market signals for the principle of management of the crisis, can not easily destroy the market rules and order. The government should pay attention to financial problems from the perspective of people's livelihood, which is more effective than the imbalance use of monetary policy according to the scientific development concept.2) Enlightenment on economic growth pattern adjustment in China: Adjusting economic growth pattern, improving the structure of export trade, and expanding range of RMB rate fluctuation; cultivating domestic demand and enhancing the rural population's income.3) Enlightenment on China's financial industry: a) on the aspect of finance supervision, on one hand we must pay attention to the problem of supervising boundary, preventing redundant supervision, on the other hand the unity of international supervision standard must be strengthened. Supervision ideas and supervision tools in developed countries should be studied, authorizes and supervises each new financial products and derivative products discretely. b) When advancing the opening of Chinese finance to the world safely and positively, risks in the global financial system should not be neglect. c) Chinese commercial banks should take the subprime lending crisis's lesson fully, guarantee the execution of installment policy strictly, raise the rate of installment moderately, and clear the phenomenon of zero-installment. Strict pre-loan check on credit should be adopted, avoiding presenting the false mortgage. The importance of careful management must be understood. d) International cooperation in finance supervision between countries must be strengthened, and the linkage mechanism must be established, strengthening the supervision information communication and transmission to establish supervision. e) To master the law of fictitious economy and solid the basis of real economy.4) Enlightenment on real estate loan market in China: establishing complete real estate loan insurance, expanding the profit channel and also preventing and solving risks effectively to the healthy cycling of financial industry. The government should release related policies to strengthen supervision and management to congenial behaviors to reduce loss brought by contract broken. Regarding to completed estate with minor property right, the government should not attack constantly, but guide and regulate it by law and policies, take small housing property right as supplement of low-rent housing system, to some extent, help the low-income families in city to evade the high price of housing and solve housing problems5) Enlightenment to Chinese capital market development and the specific economic cycle: China must take careful consideration on developing property securitization, strengthen the analysis on the macro economic operation, and pay attention to the possible risks brought by the economic cycle fluctuation highly. Under preconditions of risk can be controlled, promote China's capital to participate in international capital markets, achieve positive development of the derive products in norms of the Securities and Exchange places, while innovation in the financial regulation and also give full play to the role of the supervise, take riskes in the hands of the measurable, controllable and the tolerant scale.6) Enlightenment on China's information disclosure: One of the causes of US subprime lending crisis is the market malfunction leading by asymmetrical information. China must establish supervisory system to grading institutions mainly on strengthening the internal system construction control of grading institutions. The grading standard and procedure of credit system must be open to the public to avoid the false grading. Grading companies with cheating records must be punished strictly. Under preconditions of risk can be controlled, promote China's capital to participate in international capital markets, achieve positive development of the derive products in norms of the Securities and Exchange places, while innovation in the financial regulation and also give full play to the role of the supervise, take riskes in the hands of the measurable, controllable and the tolerant scale.China must pay close attention to the Western countries'rescue plans and promote China's ability to deal with financial problems by summarizing Western countries'rescue plans. Meanwhile, for China has massive USA's government debts and two-estate debts, paying attention the change of international financial market is also barrier to reduce risks for the financial assets security of China. As the international finance crisis deepens, adjustment of China's economic structure should be coordinated with the industrial promotion plan. Expanding and stimulating the domestic market demand vigorously, increasing the domestic employment and improve social members'expectation of future income, the measures above will be root to reduce and even avoid the possibility of subprime crisis in China. |
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