| The volume of world sea transportation is in the state of increasing with the development of world economy and international trade.As per related statistic,sea transportation always accounts for 90%of the global volume and plays a vital role in the world economy and trade.Moreover,international dry bulk shipping is the main part of maritime market.Considering the charter of international dry bulk shipping market which is close to completely competing market,many factors such as the relationship between demand and supply,economy and trade,policy and nature environment will comprehensively have impact on freight,which later will arose the fluctuation of freight.More and more people have paid attention to the severe fluctuation of freight and in order to avoid risks brought by such fluctuation,early in 1985.Baltic Exchange had raised BIFFEX Shipping Futures Contract.But this commodity has been passed off due to its shortage,for instance low activity of itself market,which replaced by Forward Freight Agreements,a more efficiency and pertinency means.Through reverse operation between FFAs and spot market,ship owners or charters can lock the earning or the cost of transportation for avoiding risks.Due to the relationship between spot market and forward market,the impact on FFAs market have spread to spot market, whose illusively high freight and sharp fluctuation make operators face more challenges and opportunities.How to correctly realize and efficiently use freight derivate for avoiding risks will be an important meaning to shipping operators.Adding to that, tightly analyzing the relationship between spot freight and forward freight will have practical meaning on the management and control of freight risk.Based on one representative voyage in the international dry bulk shipping and econometrics methods,this paper involves two main parts:one based on spot freight, discusses what impact does aggravating speculation element in FFAs market play on the volatility of spot freight.Comparatively analyse between selecting two periods finds that aggravating speculation element increases the spot price's volatility.The other on the basis of forward freight and relevant spot freight,analyzes the lead-lag relationship between such two prices,how degree does one affect another and their price discovery on future spot freight.The result suggests two prices have bidirectional causality,but the lead-lag relationship is not remarkable.Price-finding function of FFAs slightly plays dominant role on the forming process of future price,but not absolutely.Speculation behavior can explain increasing volatility of spot freight and low price-discovery function of FFAs,namely speculation makes FFA price lack of authenticity,then depresses its guidance to spot freight.In the variously changing international dry bulk shipping market,operators especially Chinese operators and traders should firstly understand the mechanism of FFA and ceaselessly enhance risk consciousness,more realize its shortage and guard its risks, then rightly judge the market and utilize FFA contracts in order to really carry out the the aim of avoiding freight risk. |
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