The Path Selection Of Exchange Rate Regime Transition: The Theory Evolution And The International Experience

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods System, the turmoil of the international financial system focuses on the performance of the frequent occurrence of currency crisis, and these crises were accompanied by the adjustment and the reform of exchange rate system. At the same time, under the background of that the order of the international monetary system is relative weakening and the political, economical, and financial environment of each country is constantly changing, many countries'exchange rate regimes face with fine-adjusting, correction, even transition. Therefore, the study on the change in exchange rate regime has been widespread concern both at home and abroad. Exchange rate regime transition theory, as a new area of study on exchange rate regime, researches the exchange rate regime how to adjust when a country's economic developments and institutional changes. However, the theory is not perfect. A variety of researches are basically in the level of introducing the phenomenon and analyzing the situation. So the research on exchange rate regime transition theory is of great theoretical and historical significance on the international exchange rate system. At the same time, the process of China's capital account liberalization further accelerates, which intensifies the pressure on the appreciation of RMB. How the RMB exchange rate system adjusts or changes? The research on the exchange rate regime transition theory is of great practical significance on the reform-oriented of RMB exchange rate regime.Under the background of the evolution of international monetary system, the article uses the research methods, which both combine the theoretical analysis with the empirical analysis, and combine the comparative analysis with summing up analysis, and analyzes exchange rate regime transition theory and international experiences. The article discusses the path selection of the exchange rate regime transition, combines with the analytical framework of"Trilemma"and gives advice on the reform of RMB exchange rate regime.First, the article outlines the evolution of the international monetary system, which is the background of exchange rate regime transition theory. On the basis of that, the practice in exchange rate regime transition of the developing countries is outlined, which exchange rate regime transition is more frequently. Then two issues are extended: the theory evolution and the international experience. The content and system of theory is more complex, which includes the motivation theory, the path theory, the timing theory and the impact theory. The international experiences are rich, which are summary based on the country cases, which provide different path selections for Exchange rate regime transition. Finally, the reform-oriented of RMB exchange rate regime is made: under the gradual opening up of capital accounts, improving the managed floating exchange rate system of RMB, and increasing the flexibility of the exchange rate.