| The iron and steel is not only extremely important functional materials, but also important strategic materials. The iron and steel industry is "food" for the modern industry, which is the foundational and supportable industrial to the whole agriculture and industry's development. Steel market conditon affects not only a national or regional economic development, but also the defense industry,social stability,the world political and military situation. China has being a major steel importer country since the 1990s last, and exported 43010 thousand tons steel in 2006 as NO.1 in the world. China's iron and steel industry has integrated into the world steel industry system so deeply. The international steel market fluctuations in prices will influence our national economic and political greatly. Althrough China is the world's No.1 production and consumption of steel, China is short of iron ore. With the dramatic increase in the amount of importing iron ore, its prices was increasing rapidly. China's iron and steel industry faces the further development bottleneck of resources and environment. Thus the study on the international steel market is vital to provide theoretical basis for China's sustainable development of the steel industry.Lots of studys have been done on the markets condition, but to the steel market study, both at home and aboard researchers studied the characteristics of steel price sometime in some local steel markets. Few of them studied them from the world's long-term perspective. And long-term steel markets study play an important role on establishing the development policy of steel industry. This thesis will study the world long-term steel market from the economic cycle perspective. I collected detailed data of steel production and consumption of the world, and supplemented by a large number of charts, to study,analys and forcast the long-term trend of world steel martet.This thesis starts from the review of the world steel market since 1994. From the graph, we can see that the steel market fluctuated, but the trend is rising since 1990s. We use the Marx's theory of labor value,the theory of economic circle and the theory of supply and demand as a guide to analys the impact of various factors on the steel markets. Marx's theory of labor value is the basis for steel markets; the thory of economic cycle is its macroeconomic factors; and the thory of demand and supply is its major factor. Although facters which effect the steel prices to rise and fell exist at the same time, the main impact of major factors such as the rapid rise in the cost of production, tight supply of the raw materials and more and more investment in environmental protection have determined that the long-term steel market is no a upward trend. The second part is about the situation of China's iron and steel industry, including the supply and demand of China's iron and steel and trade situation since 1980. On basis of the detailed data of China's steel supply and demand, least-squares method is used in analyzing the relationship of the variables. I forecast the steel demand of China in the future. Finally, we find out the problems of China's Steel Industry. We looked for intensive literature about the successful experience of other countries. We should encourage our iron and steel enterprises to invest on abroard, which can allocate the global resources; The iron and steel industry association should play a management role on importing the iron ore, which can increase the power of iron ore negotiations; we should solve the iron and steel import and export properly; we should implement and force the iron and steel enterprises to carry out the recycling economy, which can reach China's energy-saving target, and so on. This paper will help on setting out development policy of the iron and steel industry,upgrating thr structure of our iron and steel industry. |
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