| In this paper, beginning with connotation of the real estate bubble, causes and methods of inspection of real estate bubble are conducted in-depth analyses theoretically. In addition, advantages and shortcomings of every method mentioned by the paper are analyzed in detail.The new concept of "method of index adjusting " is brought forward based on method of market adjusting, its concept and method are applied to the empirical research on bubble of Beijing real estate market, and its connotation and applicability are developed further.Based on the current status of real estate market in Beijing, the reasonable interval of housing price-to-income ratio in Beijing is inferred. And then the method of index adjusting is applied to the empirical research on bubble of Beijing real estate market in 1996-2007.The results of research show that Beijing's real estate market bubble existed in 2006, 2007 slightly, and active transaction activities of residents and too much supports of financial institutions to real estate developers, which plays a positive role to Beijing's real estate bubble.The last chapter indicates that causes of real estate bubble of Beijing include factors of macroscopically economic conditions, microcosmic economic conditions and systems. Because financial institutions supported real estate markets too much, Olympic Games brought good anticipate to investors in 2008, shortcomings of tax policy and presale policy of housing systems exist in Beijing, and the market order isn't perfect, demands of real estate are not in accordance with its supplies, therefore, Beijing's real estate price becomes higher and higher.The measures must be taken such as strict financial supervision, improvements of taxes and sale policies of housing system as well as market order, and speculation control in Beijing. |
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