Study On Forecasting International Dry Index In The Context Of The Financial Crisis

The global economy has entered a stage of financialization; the trend of the financial shipping industry is obvious. The financial crisis caused by the sub-loan crisis of USA in 2008, lead to the shipping market continued to decline. In the context of the financial crisis, the international dry bulk market is facing an unprecedented dilemma.Therefore, in the background of the financial crisis, the concern of international dry bulk freight rates is doubled. As a standard of comparison of shipping freight values and standard values in a period of time, Dry Index is "barometer" of the shipping market. Dry Index reflects to the changes in trends of the shipping market freight rates, and reveals the supply and demand trends of shipping market and related market, and thereby provides all types of market players and macroeconomic regulation and control of government departments to the necessary basis of Decision-Making. Thus, studying the Dry Index under the financial crisis, exploring the internal mechanism of operation of the Dry Index, and analyzing its future trends, have a very important theoretical and practical significance.This paper analyzed the Dry Index in the background of financial crisis with the method of combination of qualitative and quantitative.First of all, this paper elaborated the purpose and significance of the study, and the research both at home and abroad, as well as research papers content. It analysis of the characteristics and development of dry bulk shipping market, and also expounded the situation of international dry bulk shipping market in the context of the financial crisis and the fluctuations of Baltic Dry Index .Secondly, the paper chose one of forecasting methods to forecasts the fluctuations. As the financial crisis will cause price changed sharply in the short term, so the Dry Index signal contains a lot of mutation and aberration, resulting in signal distortion, so this paper chose Wavelet Analysis for Noise Reduction. And then introduced the forecasting methods of international dry bulk freight, by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of several methods, finally used the RBF neural network to solve the problem, and introduced the applicability of RBF neural network in the background of the financial crisis briefly.Then, there were a total of 2430 observations of BPI Index from January 4, 2000 to April 1, 2009 as basic data. This paper did the data pre-processing with wavelet analysis method, and then forecasted Dry Index with RBF neural network, after of all, there was a result.Finally, the paper introduced the coping strategies for the impact of the financial crisis, and summarized the research work and inadequacies, and looked ahead research prospects.