Cycle Division Of Dry Bulk Shipping Market And Opportunity Of Time Charter

With the rapid development of the international economic trade and the division of labor, as a derivative market, the shipping market has expanded fast. In the market, the international dry bulk shipping markets is an important component and develops fast the same of the whole market. This market is a perfectly competitive market and its competition is intenser than the container liner market. Therefore, the study of dry bulk shipping market characteristics is meaningful particularly. Cyclical characteristic is the most important one. Baltic index BDI is the most indexes reflecting the market decline or prosperity.BDI index has dramatic fluctuations in recent years. BDI reached the highest point-11793 point in history on May 20, 2008 and reached the lowest point-663 point on December 5, 2008.Only about half a year, the index dropped from the highest to the lowest point, a decrease of 95%.It can be seen that risk of the dry bulk shipping market is very large. Therefore, the study of dry bulk shipping market cyclical characteristics is meaningful particularly.In this article, analyze the characteristic of dry bulk shipping cyclical market through studying the time charter rate of Panamax dry bulk carrier, then based on the result, study further on the decision-making of time charter. The following is the main contents of the article:Firstly, introduce the international dry bulk shipping market, the main types of international dry bulk, the Baltic Index BDI and time charter. And make the analysis and discussion on the above situation in recent years.Secondly, analyze the relationship between the BDI index and the one-year time charter rates of Panamax dry bulk carrier on cointegration theory. Then analyze the entire dry bulk shipping market cycle through the time charter rates.Thirdly, observe the similarities in all shipping cycle through the composite moving average technique and RSI indicator. Then, divide the shipping market cycle on the similarities. Finally, study the characteristics of time charter in different cycle stage, then predict the time charter rate by ARJMA models and determine the time to make the business.