Research On Fiscal Growth And Fiscal Risk

Fiscal risk was attracted concerns of many people in recent years. Fiscal revenue grew along with economic growth in China. Since 1998, the growth rate of fiscal revenue was almost as twice as growth rate of GDP. Elasticity of tax revenue was greater than 1 for 10 years, and in views of theory, for this kind of turnover tax was the main tax structure, the tax elasticity was supposed to below 1 in our country. Since other conditions remain unchanged, tax revenue only synchronized with the GDP growth, but was unlikely to exceed it. This situation of the sharply growing tax revenue, has given rise to the government, academic circles and the news media as well as the society. There was controversy between the rationality of this phenomenon and the economic impact. The data from Statistical Communiquéof the People's Republic of China on the 2008 National Economic and Social Development showed that though the financial growth was negative growth, the growth rate of tax was as twice as the growth rate of GDP too. So it's of practical significance to study the risk of financial income.The main source of revenue is tax. This thesis, in views of theory, illustrated the definition of the risk of fiscal growth. Then the thesis analyzed the composition of the risk of fiscal growth. Finally, from the perspective of the three financial functions, the thesis reviewed the harmfulness of the risk of increasing fiscal revenue. This thesis used the econometric model (correlation coefficient matrix and auto-regressive model) to explain the rapid growth of tax revenue growth and gross domestic product. This thesis analyzed the growth of non-tax revenue and the risk of budget surplus.The conclusion is that the econometric model showed the long-term imbalance between tax revenue and GDP, and the growth of the tax revenue deviated truly GDP. The phenomenon of supernormal growth was existed. Finally, some advices are given in this thesis from the perspective of the Budget audit.