Empirical Analysis On The Trade Surplus Of China

In recent years, the growth of foreign trade surplus of China has became a widely concerned focus at home and abroad. The big amount of foreign trade surplus has brought a series of unfavorable results to China's economic development. Therefore, we should positive seek reasons of foreign trade surplus which is the urgent matter of seeking solution methods.The thesis makes an analysis and research on the reasons for the results of foreign trade surplus and factors influencing foreign trade surplus of China. The purpose is to seek reasons and factors of foreign trade surplus so as to find out solution methods by analysis and study.Based upon analysis of the present situation and structural characteristics of foreign trade surplus of China, the paper analyses reasons and factors of foreign trade surplus from the perspectives of theoretical and practical aspects. The reasons of the formation of foreign trade surplus is a result produced commonly by various aspects from the international and domestic factors. Famous economist Krugman holds that mainly decisive factors which influences the current account of foreign trade surplus including exchange rate and disposable income. The paper adopts correlation test, data stationary test, co-integration analysis, regression analysis and other methods to make quantitative analyses on CA functional test empirically and combine time series analysis with panel data analysis.The findings indicates that: firstly, the trade of changes in reverse are between exchange rate and foreign trade surplus, and the effect of exchange rate on balance of payments in western area is more significant than that in eastern part in domestic. The main cause is the difference between import and export trade configuration and demand elasticity. Secondly, the trade of positive changes are between GDP and foreign trade surplus, and the effect of GDP on foreign exchange receipts and disbursement in eastern part is more significant than than in central and western regions in domestic. The main cause is affected by the influence of foreign investment policy and export guidance policy. Thirdly, the results are shown that the exchange of domestic price index has no significant influence on foreign trade surplus. Finally, the paper put forward the countermeasure suggestion for the excessive foreign trade surplus of China in order to achieve the balance of trading and promote the healthful development of economy.