Study On The Year 2007-2008 China's Imported Inflation And Anti-Inflation Measures

Since 2007,the Consumer Price Index(CPI) in China has remained at a rather high level,keeping rising from 2.2%in the start of 2007 through 6.5%in December to 8.7%in February of 2008.However,since March 2008 the CPI started to fall down to 6.3%in July and at last stood at 1.2% in December.During the period the CPI experienced the course of keeping rising to a peak and then falling and disappearing.In the meanwhile,the prices of resource products such as oil,cereals, edible oil and iron ore etc.,have been rising rapidly in the international market.Both developed countries and developing ones have suffered greatly from world-wide inflation.In July 2008,the oil price in the world market reached the historical peak of USD147 per barrel,and then it slumped rapidly to about USD35 per barrel.The price of other resource goods like iron ores and corns experienced the same process.Is there any relationship between China' s inflation and world-wide inflation as well as the rise of resource goods? And how does inflation conduct throughout the world? This thesis adopts two theoretical models of the international conduction of inflation,i.e.the structural analysis inflation and monetarist analysis,to carry out an empirical study on the reasons and conductive channels of China' s inflation from the year 2007 to 2008 and reaches an conclusion that China' s inflation is imported inflation,which passes through to China by import & export trade and capital inflows.Following the method above,this thesis structures its content as follows.In chapter one it discusses the theoretical and realistic significance of such a study and summarizes domestic and foreign researches about imported inflation.In chapter two it introduces the two theoretical models——the structural analysis of the international conduction of inflation and the monetarist analysis of the international conduction of inflation.In chapter three it carries out an empirical study on China' s 2007-08 inflation by analyzing the conduction of the international inflation through import & export trade and capital inflows. Chapter four analyzes the characteristics of imported inflation and its adverse impact on China' s economy and the last chapter gives some anti-inflation measures.