Risk Assessment Of Accounts Receivable Based On Bayesian Network

Account receivable risk has become one of the outstanding problems that enterprises meet when controlling their risk.At the time of financial crisis,it's of great importance to strengthen risk management of accounts receivable.But we must assess the risk in order to choose suitable methods for controlling risk.Corporations at abroad attach great importance to access risk,risk management is set up at scientific and quantity model.By contract,China's business-to-risk assessment of accounts receivable at a large extent,still depends on subjective judgments of people.How to accurately access the risk of accounts receivable is our weakness.The existing account receivable risk assessment method,like the credit grading law,the violation probabilistic model and so on,needs the massive historical data to take the prior probability to carry on the estimate.But the account receivable risk's historical data are quite few,therefore,when applies these methods has certain limitation.The Baye network is one kind of probabilityaposteriori law,can solve this problem well.Risk assessment of accounts receivable based on Bayesian network provides a description of the map.Take full advantage of this expert knowledge and sample data to a priori information and historical data combine the ability to easily deal with incomplete data,in order to effectively address the risk of the accounts receivable lack of observational data.In the process,it is the theoretical basis of probability theory, the comprehensive utilization of the strengths of other methods,taking into account all kinds of information inside and outside the enterprise,integration of objective data and their own subjective experience,thus providing a model of credit transactions and that this models of learning and reasoning mechanism for the establishment of models and knowledge in this field and to answer related inquiries,and,in this based on the forecast-assisted decision-making and analysis.This study can help dynamically assessing the risk,and grasping how each accounts receivable risk is going on.Still,this study also provide enterprises the evidence to take appropriate risk control methods,to make a correct risk management decision-making,and to achieve fast and good corporate target.