Electricity Demand Forecasting And Sustainable Development Of Electricity Industry In China

China has the largest population,the third largest economy based on GDP,and it is experiencing rapid economic development.This article explains how economic growth,urbanization,and industrialization have impacted and influenced electricity consumption during a period of transformation and development.For the first time, this paper introduces two explanatory factors----urbanization and industrialization. These two factors are used to forecast electricity demand,and they have profoundly reflected the most obvious features of China's economic and social development in the current stage.The electricity industry should lay a solid foundation and provide strong support to overall economic growth.To achieve this ambition,we need to keep balance between electricity demand and supply.Therefore,this article has also added research about the comprehensive economic benefits evaluation of power supply to the studies about power demand,pointing out current problems in China's power industry,as well as giving related policy recommendations to the scientific strategy on development and promotion of sustainable development of the electricity industry.Based on detailed analysis of China's electricity demand since the reform and opening of the economy in 1978,this article combines research results from previous literature with China's overall condition to choose several appropriate variables so that a co-integration model can be established to forecast gross electricity demand and generation capacity for the next thirty years.According to predictions,total electricity demand in 2020 will be twice as large as it is now.In 2040,it will have increased three to four times the current consumption.This shows that the country's economic and social development in the future will create high demands of the electricity and supply industry.This article indicates that we must improve economic benefits and achieve sustainable development of the power industry through market-oriented reform,based on the comprehensive economic benefits assessment of the Chinese power industry,especially in the reform of market pricing.It also indicates that we need to rebuild modern-enterprise systems,implement investment from various sources to improve efficiency,and to promote effective competition in the market.