Optimal Scale Of Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserve Research And Analysis Of Practical Choice Under Current Situations

In recent years,the scale of Chinese foreign exchange reserve increase rapidly. The scale of our reserve surpassed that of Japan and rank first in the world in February 2006;the scale exceeded 1000 billion dollars in October 2006;the increases of scale are both more than 400 billion dollars in 2007 and 2008.At then end of 2008, the scale is 1946.03 billion dollars,and equal to 48%of Chinese gross domestic products in 2008.Although plays an active role in our economy,reserve of such high scale gives more negative influence:rapid growth of reserve made monetary base increase sharply,not only influenced the independence and cost of monetary policy, but also worse the problem of excess money.Besides,for the reason of main currency (especially dollar) depreciated,our exchange reserve' value decreased and afforded much opportunity cost and risk.So what is the optimal scale of reserve and how to actively use reserve become the hot spots of macroeconomics research.There is no unified standard for the optimal scale of a country's reserve both in theory and practice.At present,there are four main methods to evaluate the optimal scale of reserve,and they are ratio analysis,demand analysis,cost-return analysis and qualitative analysis.All of them have their advantages and short comes.Many scholars used these different methods to evaluate the optimal scale of Chinese reserve and got different conclusions.To solve the above two problems,the thesis firstly define the meaning of optimal reserve and summarize the research situation at home and abroad and the four main methods of optimal reserve evaluation systematically.Secondly,the thesis focus on the scale of Chinese reserve,retrospect the development history and analyze the reason and influence of current situation of Chinese reserve;then give synthetic consideration of several aspects of Chinese reserve demand,combine the ratio analysis and cost-return analysis to evaluate the optimal scale of Chinese reserve;at last get the conclusion that Chinese reserve far exceed the optimal scale at present. Finally,the thesis base the conclusion above,learn the experience of Singapore and Norway' methods to actively and successfully use the reserve and analyze the different directions of investment of our abundant exchange reserve comparatively, conclude that purchase important resources and increase strategic resource reserve is our best choice to actively resolve the problem of excess exchange reserve.The thesis also gives some suggestion about this conclusion.