An Analysis And Revision Of Sovereign Rating Models Of Rating Agencies From Financial Crisis Standpoint

The integration of the world's economy and finance brings both the development and the risk. More and more sovereign bonds are being issued in the international capital market, and the private and the government investment aboard are becoming more frequent. However, the negative impacts of the frequently happened international financial crisis and economic crisis increases the risk of the foreign investment. The fact is that the sovereign rating models of the world's three biggest rating agencies not only had not given the early warning, but had aggravated the situation. As a result, it is necessary to analyze and rate one country's sovereign risk. What's more, the revision of the rating models of the rating companies is essential. Although there are wide and thorough researches about the sovereign risk and the sovereign rating aboard, there is few research concerning to the revision of the sovereign rating models. In the domestic academy, the study for this issue is on the starting phase and focuses on the simple introductions of the foreign researches of the sovereign risk and the sovereign rating. Based on the reality, the author holds that it is necessary to systematically introduce the sovereign risk, the sovereign rating and the sovereign rating models of the rating companies, and revise and improve the sovereign rating models. Those are the innovations of this thesis.This thesis systematically introduces the sovereign risk, the concept of the sovereign rating, the determinants of the sovereign rating and the sovereign rating models of Moody, Fitch and Standard & Poor. Then the thesis comments on the sovereign rating models of the three agencies. Based on the analysis of the features and the causes of the sovereign risk of the developed countries and the developing countries, the thesis revises and improves the sovereign rating models of the three agencies. The following is the analysis of U.S. and China grounded on the revised and improved sovereign rating models. The conclusions are that U.S. has high sovereign risk while China's sovereign rating is underestimated. At last, the thesis provides the suggestions of reforming the charging pattern of our country, developing our country's sovereign rating business, forming our own sovereign rating models and raising the position of RMB in the international monetary system.