The Empirical Statistics Research Of Nonferrous Metal Market Based On The Price Index Of Futures,Spots,Stock Market

The nonferrous metal market is significant in the development of the national economy. It has been paid more and more attention for the scholars to concert about the the price volatility of the nonferrous metal in the futures market, spot market, stock market; about the relationship of the price among the three markets; about the influence on the price of the market to the other market. However, the subject a lot of scholars focused on only one type or several types and the method used in quantitative method analysis the problem. They didn't research the developing trend of the nonferrous metal market as a whole. Some scholars worked out the price index based on the futures market to research the situation of the markets as a whole and did comparative studies against the index reflected the overall development macroeconomic of China.The subject of the paper is chosen that London Metals Exchange Index(LMEX), Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Index(SMMI), Nonferrous Metals Index in China Stock Market to represent futures market, spot market, stock market. Firstly, the paper introduces LMEX, SMMI, Nonferrous Metals Index in China. Secondly, the paper analysis the relationship among the three indexes from the method of programming and the different markets, then it brings forward my own thought about the relationship among the three indexes. Thirdly, using the quantitative methods from three angles whether the relationship among three indexes, the form among three indexes, the volatility among three indexes and then getting the result corresponding to reality. The author wishes it would bring some inspiration to the work for the relationship among the futures market, the spot markets and the stock markets.The paper is five parts as follows:The first chapter sets forth the theory of meaning and necessity, the recap of the relative literature about the topic including the relationship among the futures market, the spot market and the stock market. Lastly it discusses the structure of the paper;The second chapter introduces the method how to program the price index for futures market, spot market and stock market. They are: LMEX, SMMI, STOCK;The third chapter is the qualitative analysis among LMEX, SMMI, STOCK: including explaining the same methods and the different methods among them, then the relationship and connection among them from the relationship among the futures market, the spot market, the stock market. In conclusion, the paper puts forward my own view the relationship among SMMI, LMEX, STOCK and build my own theoretic model after the analysis above the mentioned.The fourth chapter is the linkage mechanism using quantitative analysis among SMMI, LMEX, STOCK: the chapter explains the relationship among the three major indices whether the relationship existence, building the existence model and the volatility spillover model by using the quantitative methods. The result can be verified the theoretical model in the third chapter.The last chapter is the conclusions and suggestions from the theory.The possible innovation thought of the paper:First of all, the article is chosen that at the same time London Metals Exchange Index(LMEX), Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Price Index(SMMI), Nonferrous metals index(STOCK) to represent the futures market, the spot market, the stock market in the nonferrous metals industry for the first time; then using the qualitative method to analysis the relationship among them in methodology and the three major indices in different markets and getting my own model; lastly making the theorical modle more closing to the actual situation through analyzing the linkage mechanism in the existence relationship, the form of the the existence relationship and the volatility spillover model.