Dynamic Modeling Of Customer Lifetime Value

Dynamic modeling of customer lifetime value (CLV) is the difficulty and hot-points on the research of customer relationship management in recent years. Based on this research, the main research results in this dissertation as follows:(1)Based on Pareto/NBD model, and by including customer satisfaction and word of mouth in this model, construct the new dynamic calculation model of customer lifetime value.Based on Pareto/NBD model, use probability that a customer is alive to introduce customer satisfaction into the model, and also introduce word of mouth into the calculation model by the existing research on the relationship between customer satisfaction and word of mouth. And finally, construct the CLV calculation model of this dissertation. Compare with the research before, this article is the first time to introduce customer satisfaction and word of mouth into the CLV calculation model at the same time. The results of this research make the model show more dynamic and the actual customer value.(2)By the analysis of the actual data from telecom industry, validate the CLV model in this dissertation.Extract actual usage data from BOSS of a telecom operator and include the customers who use GPRS from 0:00 on September 1, 2008 to 24:00, use the model constructed in this article and some software including Matlab, Excel, SPSS to analyze the data, then can get the conclusion as follows: 1) Validate the applicability of the model to the research of consume behavior in telecom industry. That is use the usage data in the first 23 hours to predict the probability of customers is alive at 23:00, and also the Frequency of use and the average spending per use.2) Validate the effect of this model. That is use the usage data to predict the customer value in the next 12 hours, and also calculate the customer value in the total 36 hours. And then, compare the results calculate by this model to the model without word of mouth to validate the effect of this model.(3)Discuss the application of the model in the marketing of telecom market.Give some suggestions in application for enterprise management from three angles, which including CLV dynamic management, dynamic evaluate of customer-base and customer segmentation management.