Study On Credit Risk Recognition And Assessment For Logistics Enterprises

Based on the special environment of China's logistics development, and combined with practices of logistic management to study credit risk management theory and methods has become one of the important research problems to be solved. In this paper, we take Logistics Services Supply Chain (LSSC), structured with "functional logistics service providers→logistics enterprises→logistics customers", as research perspective, then build a credit risk identification and assessment methodology for logistics enterprises. LSSC can be seen as complex contracts network based on the mutual cooperation of the members, and co-operation or transaction is to be bound by contracts, but credit is the basis for cooperation. Thus, there may be varying degrees of credit risk in LSSC.In the premise of taking account into internal factors and external environmental impact of LSSC, the article, based on the position of third-party logistics enterprises and the use of system dynamics theory method, analyze the formation mechanism and characteristics of credit risk from the perspective of whole LSSC system and logistics transactions sub-system. According to the comprehensive credit risk assessment framework, we use analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy theory, and automatically correct judgments to determine the weight matrix method to assess the credit risk of logistics enterprises in the whole LSSC system. In addition, we construct credit risk measurement models for logistics transactions sub-system based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM), and access credit risk from the points of transaction process and logistics services supply chain.In this paper, we put forward a new opinion on the credit risk analysis, risk assessment system and the choice of assessment models, which provide a new way of thinking for the credit risk management, hoping to guide the credit risk management practice of logistics enterprises.