The Research On Early Warning Of Well Production Performance

In the oilfield management centering on the crude oil production, the completion situation of oil production is an important factor used to evaluate the levels of oil production and management. In order to complete oil production plan and keep the production in good conditions, we need to monitor the factors which can influence the production,we can find the problems in time and take effective measures to avoid the unnecessary damages. Therefore, we should establish the early warning system to ensure the stable and high oil production. Based on the theories of oil and gas field development, statistics and early warning, this paper analyzed the practical situations of oil field. Firstly, it discussed the early warning theory and established the theory basis and framework of the paper. Secondly, from the historical data of oil field, this paper analyzed ten factors closely related with the oil productivity, and then through nonlinear regression and grey correlation method, we analyzed the relationship between productivity and all factors to ensure the degree of all the factors to the oil productivity. Then, this paper established the early warning system from the aspect of operation. And with that, we divided the warning zones using 3? and Bootstrap sampling technique. With factor analysis method, this paper calculated the early warning index of oilfield production and identified the warning zone. Finally, on the base of analyzing the traditional early warning models, we established the warning model supporting the vector machine. With the former work and studying the historical data and early warning zone, we obtained the law and can predict the future conditions. Through the calculation of early warning model of oil well and alert promise index, we can take the effective measures to decrease the effect of oil production and then keep it in good conditions.