| The real estate industry is one of the mainstay industries in the national economy. In recent years, because of the demand for self-occupation and investment are increased, China's housing prices rose rapidly. In order to regulate the price of housing, the government promulgated"The notice on the strengthening of commercial real estate credit management"and"supplementary notice"in the September 27, and December 11, 2007. How did this important event impact the real estate market and the financial market in China? This problem is a very worthy of attention and study.This paper focuses on the effect of the banking industry and the related plates of stock market after the promulgation of the policy for housing mortgage. First, it identifies the study background and meaning for this topic; Then it outlines the main elements of the policy for housing mortgage and gives the evaluation on them; Next, it analyzes the impact on banking industry due to this event; Then it uses the methods of average stock price analysis and average accumulated return analysis, focuses on the selected 84 stocks in the real estate plate and 14 stocks in banking plate, studies the price trend and return situation; Also, it brings common financial empirical research method - Event Study, and analyzes the stocks in the real estate plate, it selects time window and data samples, calculates the normal return and abnormal return, in order to get the cumulative abnormal return, eventually dose the hypothesis testing. The result indicates that: the test results significantly in the (-13,30) interval, which means, the prices of the stocks changed during that period were not impacted by the random factors, policy for housing mortgage promulgation had a significant effect on stocks'prices. This paper studies the real estate industry leaders Vanke as a case study at the same time, from its financial situation, prices return to rational to how the policy for housing mortgage impact its stock price. |
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