Relationships Between The Transition Of Population Age Structure And The Stock Market Of China

This paper investigates the association between population age structure and the returns on stocks. It is motivated by recent claims that the demographic dividend is a key factor in explaining the recent rise in asset values, especially on stocks.At first, we summarize the concerned research of relationships between demographic structure transition and capital market. At present, there is little research on it in our country. But in some developed countries (for example, in American), this research is more mature because of the early coming of population ageing. Taking one with another, most of these papers affirm the existence of relationships between population age structure and capital returns or assets prices, though there are still some problems and some disaccords among quantitative conclusions, especially in the early research.Then, we begin by considering the effect of population age structure on the capital market from demographic dividend aspect. It suggests that the saving rate is at a high level in the period of demographic dividend, and this is helpful to improve the investment. Hence, the decrease of saving rates in an ageing society will reduce the capital returns. After that,based on two existent models, beginning with considering the equilibrium conditions between families and firms behavior, we find the association between saving rate and capital returns, construct a theoretic model on the fact of our country, and bring forward the anticipation in theory by this model, that population ageing will make the capital returns down.At last, we try to construct a regression model to construe the effect of the transition of population age structure on the stock market of China. But we are failed because of the lesser data and the development status of the stock market and the investors, and so on. So, we have no enough evidence to prove that the demographic dividend is a key factor in explaining the recent rise on stocks.