The Research Of Financial Distress Prediction Model Based On Cash Flow Of Listed Company In China

After the once-in-a-century financial tsunami is raided under, the companies of numerous large and small all close down, and a solemn flag soars into the sky, that is the"cash-is-king"! During the global economic crisis, the importance of cash is to be recognized again and the efficient cash flow is to be the only way for the companies to survive. Therefore, this thesis purely researches the financial distress prediction from the point of view of cash flow, regarding the Chinese listed company as the research object, in order to find out the contribution of the cash flow indexes in the field of financial distress prediction and build a useful financial distress prediction model suitable for Chinese market.This thesis is structured in five chapters, with details followed by:The first chapter takes a brief review on the background of the financial distress prediction and the significance of the cash flow indexes for the prediction, and then the content, methods and innovations of this thesis is proposed here.ChapterⅡ, literature review is divided into three parts. The first part summarizes the definition of financial distress coinciding with the condition of the Chinese capital market on the basis of the national and foreign definitions. The second and third parts make the comprehensive expatiations on the financial distress theory separately based on the traditional indexes and the cash flow indexes.The third chapter expounds the financial distress prediction system based on the cash flow and its procedure, which mainly includes analyzing the alertness, looking for the alert source from the perspective of cash flow, building up the cash flow indexes system and establishing a financial distress prediction model.Chapter IV, according to the actual situation of China's capital market, this thesis chooses 18 financial crisis companies that is with special treatment (ST) for the first time in 2009, and 18 paired non-financial crisis companies as estimate sample, utilizes the financial data in the financial statement that the listed company has already been audited, structure the financial distress prediction models on the basis of cash flow indexes by Binary Logistic regression methodology, and analyzes the model's determinate results and forecast veracities to test sample. The result shows that the model based on cash flow indexes is effective.The fifth chapter summarizes the whole thesis. On the basis of the analysis and empirical study in the first four chapters, the main findings and limitations of the research are summarized, in order to benefit the further relevant research.Furthermore, there were innovations to some extent in the principle of researching sample choose, the index variable filtration, financial distress prediction leading and the model construction course, etc.