| Shipping industry is a high-risk industries, the financing of newbuilding is a huge investment, and it has a long payback period. What's more, the newbuilding prices constantly changing with shipping market freight fluctuation. So the timing of newbuilding investment and financing is of great important. Therefore, shipping enterprises should analyze the regularity of shipbuilding market freight and shipping market seriously, and make a scientific decision of choosing the right time to build new ships.Based on the statement of market characteristics, trend, and situation, this paper make a qualitative study of market forms and relationships between freight rate and shipbuilding market. Then make a quantitative analysis of freight rate index, contract of newbuilding and newbuilding prices, using the econometrics model such as ARMA model and combination of time sequence ARMA model. It not only study the market regularity, but also make respective research of dry bulk market, container market and tanker market. Through the cointegration theory and the establishment of VEC model, it analyses the long-term dynamics and short-term fluctuations between freight rate and newbuilding market, and reveals the interaction between the two.Based on quantitative and qualitative analysis, the shipping market freight volatility has a major impact on the shipbuilding market. The situations are all the same in the dry bulk market, container market and tanker market. Therefore, shipping companies should grasp the changes of shipping market, make accurate forecast of market developments, to find a suitable time for shipbuilding investment and financing. |
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