A Statistic Study Of The Evaluation Standard Of RMB Exchange Rate

On July 21th, 2005 People's Bank of China claim that, china began to implement the floating and managing rate system which is based on the supply and demand of the market, referenced to the basket of currencies. On May 15th, 2006 the exchange rate of RMB to US dollar is 7.9982, lower than 8:1 for the first time since the innovation of RMB exchange rate on July 21th, 2005. It keeps the strong trend of appreciation in the past year and did not show any sign of abating. Up to October 24th, 2007 the exchange rate of RMB to US dollar is 7.4938, lower than 7.5. Its cumulative appreciation rate reached to10%. There are various reviews about the influence.In the recent years, the appeal to the appreciation of RMB become more strenuous, and the pressure of the appreciation of the RMB have become more and more great.Just in this situation, many Chinese scholers researched the RMB exchange rate trend in recent years, none consilient conclusion was educde. Actually, the different conclusions hang on the different theorys and measures they used. These researchs were not systemic and have not formed a system of the evaluation standard of the exchange rate of RMB. It is the principal problem to salve that how to choose a proper theory or measure for the evaluation of the exchange rate of RMB, i.e. to fix on the evaluation standard of the exchange rate of RMB.In this paper, by the analysis of purchasing power parity theory, fundamental equilibrium exchange rate theory, behavior equilibrium exchange rate theory, natural real exchange rate theory, equilibrium real exchange rate theory and Balassa-Samuelson Effect, we get the conclusion of the general mode's adaptation test to the evaluation of the exchange rate of RMB, which benefit the conformation of evaluation model of RMB exchange rate and evaluation of RMB exchange rate. Here are the key conclusions and the creativity of this paper. Firstly, make demonstration analysis of the general regulation of evaluation of RMB exchange rate from the perspective of statistics, through generalization of BS theory, its essence, working mechanism and micro-economic foundation are illustrated. Secondly, conformate the system which is adapt to the general evaluation standard of RMB exchange rate, find the route of transforming nominal to practical variables, found the statistic database; Thirdly, conformate the evaluation standard according to the relativity between nominal exchange rate and equilibrium exchange rate; Fourthly, estimate and compute the equilibrium exchange rate model, like the Balassa-Samuelson Effect, ect, transform the theoretics model to experience model, estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of RNB.According to the experience analysis, we should appreciate RMB in the equilibrium range. Based on the level of 2006, the corresponding policy is 2.15 yun per US dollar in a short time, up to 5.813 yuan per US dollar, the degree of appreciation is 27.1%.