Research On Dry Bulk Freight Fluctuation Risk Estimation And Aversion Method

With the development and adjustment, the scale of international dry-bulk shipping market is constantly enlarging and the competition is becoming more intense. Dry-bulk shipping market is almost whole competition market, freight fluctuation is quite huge, the fluctuation bring the shipping company and all the shipping joiner gigantic risk. So, to make the freight fluctuation under control is crucial for market participants. This paper is researched in the context of such a circumstance.Traditionally, shipping companies in order to avoid freight fluctuation, they will adopt a flexible fleet management approach. In recent years, forward freight agreements, freight options invigorate in the freight derivatives market risk management. They supply shipping operators and investors with new options. This article'main task, first analysis the dry bulk shipping market, second, go through the above three methods for bulk shipping market freight rate risk aversion, then analysis the dry bulk characteristics of daily yield, apply the mainstream of financial risk measurement techniques --- VaR (Value at Risk). Freight rate of 1005 trading days for the standard route C4 2006.1.3-2010.1.8 will be used to research market risk. At last we get the conclusion.The calculation of VaR actually gives a quantitative risk, dry bulk shipping market participants can develop strategies according to their risk tolerance to avoid freight fluctuation risk better, and achieve greater profits...