America's Financial Crisis And China's Export Trade: Mechanism Analysis And Empirical Work

The financial crisis burst out from America in 2008 had negative effect on China's economy, which mainly appeared to be the contraction of China's export. Therefore, the relationship between the America's financial Crisis and China's export trade is an important topic currently. Previous studies on financial crisis and the export trade could be divided into two sorts. The first sort is to study the contagion of the financial crisis in which trade is one of contagious channels. The second one is to study the impact of the financial crisis on another country's trade or exports. The number of second sort is small. The core purpose of this thesis is to study the intrinsic link between America's financial crisis and China's export trade mechanically and empirically. The theoretical significance of this study is to propose the mechanism of the America's financial crisis' impact on China's export trade, which is a complement to the traditional theory. The practical significance is to facilitate a rapid recovery of China's export trade from the crisis and maintain the stability under an external shock, through the analysis about the major factors affecting China's exports.Based on the summary of literatures, firstly, the thesis studies the realistic chain process of the occurrence, the trade pathway of America's financial crisis and the contraction of China's export trade. Secondly, the thesis teases out the internal mechanism of the America's financial crisis' impact on China's export trade. Finally, the thesis builds up econometric models to test and measure the channels in mechanism longitudinally and the differences of mechanism among different types of countries horizontally.According to the longitudinal analysis, we find there is a long and stable relationship between the importers' income, domestic credit, exchange rate and China's exports. The decline of income is the main reason of the contraction of China's exports, while there is no necessary link between China's actual utilization of foreign capital and China's exports. According to the horizontal comparison, we could find the impact of the developed countries' income on China's exports is more significant, while the impact of the developing countries' domestic credit is more obvious. These conclusions not only provide evidences for the mechanism analysis, but also have some enlightenment on China's future economic policies.