Financial Pre-Warning Model Construction And Emperical Analysis Based On Panel Data

The 2008 international financial crisis erupted again and expanded in many countries. It brings different degrees of hazards and impacts to the financial system and the entity economy. So each enterprise financial management faces great challenges. This paper tries to do a deep research on the listed company's financial crisis warning.Financial crisis is a state of stagnated for enterprise.It doesn't makes the business cycle and financial cycle continue due to market management or decision, influence factors.Its specific performance includes continuous loss, insolvency, breach of contract and bankruptcy, etc. Because of stocks, bonds, and other claims against the expected value of the financial risks of enterprise, the company is closely related to estimate the financial crisis prewarning.Whether in academic or research, it has been in practice. Now more and more investors buy the securities of listed companies and investment. If the listed companies have financial crisis, but investors don't grasp the relevant information, so this will face the risk of huge economic losses, and even cause the whole society's stability.In recent years, there are many ST or *ST examples of company.The reasons are listed company operators decision-making misplay, being out of control and external environment deterioration. But all the financial crisis has a manifestation and deterioration of the process. Warning listed companies, financial crisis condition in time and in a correct way, it is very necessary for operators, investors, banks and other financial institutions and relevant enterprises. Therefore, it is very significant for the warning research on the listed company financial crisis. The financial crisis will be considered a relatively independent of dynamic system. We analyze the financial crisis prewarning and discusse the premise and foundation of enterprise financial crisis. We have constructed a financial crisis warning model of dynamic for the securities market participants.According to the financial risks of enterprise research, we have fonud that these papers neglect the financial data criterion of time series for a long time.Making full use of a sample of control and estimate sample for financial data as the foundation, we creatively constructed the financial crisis of temporal data stereo space model and finally established for listed companies on China's financial crisis pre-warning system of new long-term identification. So we greatly improve the criterion of the financial risks of enterprise research of practical value.The paper consists of six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction and this section mainly tells the part of the research background, significance, the definition of this study, thinking and method. The structure arrangement and innovation are at the end of this part. Chapter 2 is a financial crisis pre-warning system research literature review and reviews the listed company financial crisis prewarning model of empirical research and related financial crisis prewarning model. The third chapter is research methods, mainly including three parts, namely the classic method of principal component principal component and the binary classification method and Logistic regression analysis. The fourth chapter is research samples and variables. This includes sample selection and classification industry. The fifth chapter is financial crisis prewarning model and the empirical analysis.The contents of the part are the model test, the model K-S test results and comparison of different methods.