Research On The Financial Crisis Warning Model Of The Listed Companies About China's Information Technology Industry

With the rapid development of China's securities market, the number of listed companies in China also increased rapidly, the size of assets increasing, capital structure has been continuously optimized, the operations continue to regulate, to attract a growing number of investors, listed companies has become a great potential for new investment market. However, in the fierce market competition, due to various reasons, some listed companies by the declining operating performance, or even continuous losses, the deteriorating financial position, ultimately subject to special treatment and some may even face the risk of delisting, making investors and bonds suffer huge economic losses. Since 1998, China began to use the listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen special treatment system, the main purpose is to protect investors and creditors of financial security. All industries in China listed companies, listed companies of information technology companies were the number of ST's 18.27% of the total number of enterprises, the second column. Through the study of these enterprises, the Exploration of prediction methods help ST is expected.In this study, related research based information technology company in the ST class listed companies classified as corporate financial distress. To China's Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies of information technology for the study were chosen to Shanghai and Shenzhen A share listed companies of information technology for the study, the special treatment (ST) as a sign of corporate financial distress, from which selected 2004-2009 19 years of financial difficulties the company ST companies as samples, collected the first four years and the enterprise is to be ST ST year financial data, financial indicators used to determine correlation approach of the financial early warning indicator system, and logistics regression analysis, set up Information Technology Listed Companies Financial Crisis model, the final measurement model was tested to determine the optimal model, analysis of enterprise financial early warning indicators of financial crisis.This study combines the theory of corporate financial distress, to binary logistic regression as the basic method of information technology in China Listed companies financial distress empirical research, the main conclusions are as follows:First, the information technology category of listed companies can be predicted the financial crisis. The empirical findings show that the ST Construction of the first 3 years of financial data, the model can predict the accuracy of 86.1% of the company after two years of the possibility of ST, while ST-based financial data before the 2-year component of the model can 88.9% accuracy of forecasts of the company was ST possibilities.Second, the financial early-warning indicators of the predictive ability of companies have different financial early warning. Based on early warning indicators of financial crisis, a trend analysis over time, this study found that return on assets, ROE, net income, earnings per share, turnover, operating profit, cash flow and cash than debt liabilities The financial indicators than the 8 information technology in China listed companies that have strong predictive power of the financial crisis, including return on assets, cash flow and cash balance than the total debt of the financial indicators than 3 2 years ago from ST have predictive power, other 3 years ago from the ST index has predictive power.Third, in different years of financial crisis, business forecasting, financial early warning indicators are significantly different. ST listed companies of information technology 3 years ago the best logistic regression model showed that the 70% confidence level, the net return on assets, net income, cash total debt ratio, total assets and net assets per share have significant effects on the dependent variable ; and ST 2 years ago the best logistic regression model showed that 80% of the confidence level from the variable net income, earnings per share and the total amount of cash than debt significantly influence the dependent variable, in 95% of total assets and the confidence level current assets on the dependent variables have a significant effect.Fourth, ST previous year's financial data have predictive ability of financial crisis, the lack of independent explanatory power. Empirical findings show that the financial data based on ST year built logistics model could predict 97.4% accuracy whether a company is ST, but the model variables can not explain the independent effect on the dependent variable.This research may be innovative in the following two aspects: First, the enterprise financial crisis and the general theory of information technology is introduced into the Financial Distress of Listed Companies to the study, before although some scholars have listed various industries in China Financial Crisis Warning conducted outstanding research, but there is not information technology category for empirical studies of listed companies, the study of information technology for the study of Listed Company, look forward to a certain extent, improve the financial distress of our system. Second, this study used variable descriptive statistics, paired T test variable and the variable correlation analysis method are combined to determine the independent variables, the experience is different from the traditional factor analysis to determine the variable or method to determine the independent variables.