Research On Carrying Capacity Of Land In Wuhai City

Based on the resource and environment sustaining development of Wuhai city, this study evaluates and analyses the land resource capability of Wuhai about present situation and future forecast, in order to protect the food production security of Wuhai, and achieve the population - resources - regional coordination between the environments. The paper puts forward problems and suggestions in the land use. It will alleviate between Wuhai population and land's contradiction to provide an effective way.Based on the database of Present land use situation,Population,social economy and living level consumption from 1996 to 2007,the Paper adopted the GM(1,l) model and time series model to forecast the crops, the total output of animal products and the Potential land Productivity in Wuhai in 2015 and 2020,and analyzed the carrying capacity of land,then appraised the supply and demand in carrying capacity of land, finally analyzed the influence factor of carrying capacity of land in a distinct using the principal component analysis.There are 477000 people in Wuhai City in 2007, compared with the carrying population of 233000, the farmland capability has not been able to meet the rural population's food demands, and the existing population scale has exceeded the reasonable capability of urban construction land. The population is in overload state, Wuhai land bearing potential is limited. But with the Analysis of Agriculture Industry aggregation development strategy, the progress of agricultural technology and agricultural structure adjustment, population growth will be effective controlled. Land carrying capacity will be increased in 2015, but the land carrying capacity fails to meet population needs; Until to 2020, Wuhai land carrying capacity will solve the life of self-sufficient subsistence, the basic nutritional requirements can be achieved comfortable levels. It is basic match with the requirements that achieve well-off stage in 2020 according to the macro-economic development strategy in China.At last, based on the land using fact and situation of Wuhai city, the paper put forward Problems in the land use, and proposes effective measures and recommendations for sustainable use. The conclusions of this Paper were as follows: the formland resource is changing from the work model of the traditional extensive to the type of the modern city in the agriculture. We should protect land with our efforts, increase the total of formland, and control of the population in further, make sure formland of per capita maintain the basic stability of possession. In the end, the writer gives some suggestions which can help to raise the potential productivity and enhance the land-population carrying capacity and the way to protect the ecological environment by increasing the intensity of land remediation, appropriating development of unused land, vigorously promoting the practical skills and the implementation of ecological management.