Research On Interest Rate Trend Forecast

Interest rate is an very important economic variable to the national economy, and almost has relationship with other financial variables in the economy. As the price of leasehold funds and an important signal to guide the allocation of resources, the interest rate contacts the macroeconomic and the microeconomic, also the material market and the capital market. The interest rate change depends on the real economy, which in turn affects a variety of economic factors, social factors and psychology factors, so the interest rate is an important leverage in the economy. The level of interest rates reflects a country's economy running conditions; governments often carry out monetary policy of macroeconomic adjustment through changing the benchmark interest rates, and increasingly emphasize the changes'forward-looking character which making the official interest rates closer to the real interest rate. Therefore, the interest rate is an important indicator for measuring the macroeconomic, and the interest rate trend analysis is an important means of macroeconomic forecasting. This paper summarizes the interest rate decision theory literature, makes the t-GCI quaternary two-dimensional map with combining the cycle analysis of Cartesian coordinates and the historical data of GDP growth, consumer price index growth rates and interest rates. Based on these contents and using the comprehensive fuzzy evaluation, the interest rate trend forecasting framework was constructed, and judged and analyzed the trend changing of China's interest rates after November 2009, and the possibility of the interest rate changing is very small.There are seven parts in this thesis. The first part briefly describes the background, the meaning and the structure of the passage; explains the fundamental changes in official interest rates depends on the real economy, and the interest rate is an important indicator to judge a country's macroeconomic situation. The second part is the literature review, summarizing the interest rate determination theories; and also sums up the interest rate's term structure theories, and the interest rate view of the monetarist, the New Keynesian economics, the Swedish school and the rational expectations school. The third section describes the comprehensive fuzzy evaluation, which is the analysis method of this paper; this method is the general guiding principle for the interest rate's trend forecasting analysis. The fourth part presents the t-GCI quaternary two-dimensional map which is based on foregoing contents and combining the historical data of the gross domestic product growth rates, the consumer price index growth rates and the interest rates, and illustrates the changing relations between these three factors; this part is the specific guideline for the interest rate trends forecast. The fifth part constructs the trend forecast framework of China's interest rate, and roundly analyzes the impacting factors of the interest rate trends. The sixth part evaluates and analyzes the recent trend of China's interest rate, with the historical data and the realities. The last part summarizes and puts forward improvement of the paper.