Application Of The Random Time Series Model In Coal Price Prediction

Coal industry is a pillar industry of the national economy, featuring an important strategic position. As an important basis energy industry and typical resourceful industry, the economic situation of the coal industry is very important for industrial development. Qinhuangdao port as the nation's largest coal transfer port, it is particularly important to the coal price movements. Coal prices of Qinhuangdao area largely reflect the coal transaction price,so the testing of coal prices of Qinhuangdao area is very important.Based on the theories of econometrics and statistics,this article puts the date into the analysis frame for a purpose of coal price predication in the Chinese markets.Principles of random,probability and linear differentiation equation are employed in the analysis.The innovation of this paper is to boldly give the time series of known seasonal trends, remove seasonal adjustment, then the corresponding models predict. Seasonal adjustment is implied in time sequence of the season because of seasonal factors affect the process of corrected. Time series is refers to the prescribed period of time of economic activities, and formation of continuous measurement data. Traditional survey data collected and economic analysis by use of data are mostly annual sequence, seasonal factors, also need to seasonal adjustment. Along with the rapid economic development of economy and the people's increasing concern, in the economic analysis and the sequence of macroeconomic regulation is more and more important role. In order to make the data in different seasons, comparable to the economic analysis and management, eliminate the sequence of the sons of seasonal factors as an important content of economic analysis.1. The posing of main problem is about the background and historical significance of this study, the literature review is about the part of narrative research status, the forecast method of my papers and works of inspiration.2. The way of judging the stationary property of the random time series is presented;Three kinds model of linear random are introduced; The approaches of recognition,determining order,parameter estimation and examination of theses models are presented.3.An application of Coal Prices Forecasting example is given in light of the random time series mode in detail.The third part take random time series array linear model carry on coal price forecasting.Spend instance from data judgement of stationarity,melt steadily,modeling,by the discernment,making the steps,parameter to estimate and cxamined of the model,get predict and error and calculation of confidential interval detailed explanation random time array linear model how about use in coal price forecasting. And innovation is based on the traditional method to seek better forecasting results.4.The evaluating of the approach.Appraise the advantage and deficiency of the method of random time series.