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Forecasting Study On Regional Economic Of Hengshui City Based On BP Neural Network

Posted on:2011-04-03Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Z J ZouFull Text:PDF
GTID:2189360305974330Subject:Regional Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The regional economy is a complex network system which is composed by many interdependence and relation essential factor。One region economical development is influence by production,expense,resources,investment,trade and technology ,it causes the economical system as a whole dynamic, the non-linear complex great system。In addition,inside and outside the system the factor move uncertainty, causes the macroscopic economy to revolve its overall tendency around in its own movement process to present certain undulation, therefore it is a complex and difficult to forecast economical development。On the other hand, the traditional economic measurements are always the linear model。it is very difficult to grasp in the macroscopic economical system the non-linear relations when we forecast one regional economical.How can we grasps the primary factors which affects the regional economy development setup regional economy forecast model, and carry on the accurate forecast to one regional economy's development is the primary coverage in my article。In this article, I select 7 aspect compose 17 economy influence, which can manifests the economical development .By the economical indicators to establish a region economy forecast target system。Construct the regional economy forecast model by the BP Neural Network and use the MATLAB neural network toolbox to rorecast the HengShui city economy as the real diagnosis。Finally,I through Comparing the value with the actual value to prove in certain degree,this method can promulgate the relationsbetween the overall region economy development and its influence factors, thus prove the model has the high fitting and the forecast precision。We can use this method to forecast one region's economical development and have certain promoted value。...
Keywords/Search Tags:Regional Economy, BP Neural Network, Forecasts Target System, Economic Forecast Model
PDF Full Text Request
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