A Study Of Land Utilization Structure Change And Predict Of Fast Urbanized Area

The fast developing city Changji has been chosen as the research object of this report. The data about current land utilization and other sources of statistics of 1996 and 2009 has been used to study the process of changing land utilization and the driving mechanism, by using GIS technique and mathematical statistics analysis. The respective precast of changing land utilizations of 2015 and 2020 have also been made in this research by using CLUE-S model. The results of this research can be useful for decision makes of land utilization planning and the construction of ecological environment. Therefore, this research is of theatrical and practical significance. The research shows:(1). The land utilization of Changji has changed a lot during the past 14 years, from 1996 to 2009. Quantitatively, the range change scale is: other lands, farm lands, forest lands, industrial lands, irrigating facilities lands, and garden lands. The land utilization indices of 1996 and 2009 are respectively 133.306 and 143.801, which means improvement has been made in land utilization during this period. Since the maximum index for land utilization is 400, there is still huge potential improvement to be made. The growth rate in this region is 7.873%, which is relatively high. In terms of land utilization structure, farm lands, forest lands, industrial lands, irrigating facilities lands, and garden lands are all in the process of increase in the researched area. The range of growing speed is: garden lands> farm lands> industrial lands> forest lands. The utilization of irrigating facilities lands and other lands is declining.(2). Transform the graph of the distribution of land utilization of Changji in 2009 into grid format, and classify the utilization types as following categories: a. farm lands, b. garden lands, c. forest lands, d. industrial lands, e. irrigating facilities lands, and f. other lands. The 12 factors which are significant related to the land utilization in this region have been chosen by using regression analysis. The driving forces files have been made by using Arcview spatial analysis and these files are put into CLUE-S model to get the imitating graph of the land utilization of 2015 and 2020 respectively. Tested by ROC, the degree of fitting of every land type is given as follows: farm lands: 0.957, garden lands: 0.930, forest lands: 0.892, industrial 0.937, irrigating facilities lands: 0.927 and other lands: 0.937, all are greater than 0.75, which can be considered to be acceptable.