Study On The Scenarios-contingency Model Of Crisis Decision

In a crisis Decision-making,the crisis scenario has four basic features,such as,limited information, uncertainty,limited cognitive abilities and decision-making time is running out and so on.It is difficult to accurately perceive the crisis scenario and to make an effective pre-crisis preparation for Policy-makers.therefore, the traditional decision-making methods can not adapt to crisis the needsof decision-making.Scenario Planning is an effective way to deal with uncertainty,it is helpful for crisis Policy-makers to making decisions of the crisis better that studying the scenarios of crisis decision and analyseing the characteristics laws of the scenarios of crisis decision using Scenario Planning.Through scanning environmental, scenario assumptions, scenarios deduction, and to propose the appropriate strategy in advance, when a crisis occurs, using the Strategy prepared in advance to make effective decisions quickly.The scenarios of crisis decision changes dynamicly, which rule can revealed to use the theories and thoughts of contingency.The Crisis decision maker should use the corresponding crisis decision strategy according to the specific scenarios of crisis decision.The crisis scenarios is independent variable, crisis decision strategy is dependent variable, the strategy of crisis decision is decided by the scenarios of Crisis decision of that time.This paper analyzes the characteristics of a crisis scenario and to study the law which the crisis scenarios changes ,to furthermore ,reveal the crisis decision-making mechanism and process of scenarios- contingency in crisis decision-making, and then conclude that the theoretical model of scenarios-contingency in crisis decision-making.