Based On Interval DEA To Forecast Efficiency And Formulate Budget Schedule

As society changes and rapid economic development, enterprise internal and external business environment have undergone great changes. Because of the limited nature of enterprise resources,in order to achieve enterprise business objectives,effective budget schedules can help companies achieve the set objectives with limited resources to obtain maximum benefits. Therefore, budget schedules have become an effective management control method.In addition, in the study process, we also find that traditional budget theories are generated in the situation of relatively stable business environment, while market environment drastic change, with rapid advancement of science and technology now. However, traditional budgeting system limitations expose. So, faced to the fierce market competition environment, enterprises should establish a scientific, practical, real-time, reasonable budget system.Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a methodology for measuring the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units (DMUs) which use multiple inputs to produce multiple outputs. However, inputs and outputs indexes are always not concrete. For instance, survey error, data noise, information inadequacy, as well as stochastic influence in economic phenomena and economic rule which makes decision making units(DMUs) cannot be precise, therefore, in these uncertain situation, the input and the output values often interval value. The interval DEA theory is produced to resolve this problem. Traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) is based on the data of the previous value to evaluate efficiency, which reflects management's own lag. In this article,we first briefly introduce the development process of interval DEA, Then according to the actual situation, to expand the scope of interval value of indexes and do extension research in interval DEA. After this, based on the predict interval value, we use interval DEA model to forecast the efficiency of seventeen telecommunications companies in municipal cities of the province. According to the forecast efficiency, though rectify time after time, we then formulate next year's budget schedule. Finally compare with the data of previous year, so as to provide more useful information for decision-makers in the next year.This paper is divided into six parts: the first chapter is the introduction section, it is mainly describe the significance of the study and the main content of this paper. In the second chapter, we briefly introduce basic theory of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the research direction. In the third chapter, we give solution of interval DEA approach, and expand the relevant theoretical studies. In the fourth chapter of this paper, we discuss the process of enterprise budgeting and tell you how to make corporation budget schedule. In the fifth chapter, we give an example of telecommunication enterprises to explain the combination of interval DEA-based budgeting methods as empirical research. In the last chapter, we give the summary and research prospects of this thesis. Finally, we also bring forward the study deficiencies and shortcomings in the research process.