Study On Dividend Payout Policy Based On Senior Managers' Overconfidence In The Listed Companies Of China

As a regular human psychological preference, overconfidence will generate significant and long-term effects to human economic activities, especially in companies owned by executives who have stronger overconfidence than the general level will bring more significant and far-reaching impact on company decision-making. At present, domestic study about overconfidence executives is still in infancy. Listed companies as the main form of joint-stock companies, its unique organizational structure and operation way make dividend payout become one of the major decisions faced to executives of listed companies. However, at present, the research of affects of overconfidence psychological preferences of Chinese listed company executives on company dividend policy is still in blank. Therefore, from the theoretical and empirical, systematic and deep study the influence of overconfidence psychological preference of listed company executives on the company dividend payout decision-making, have important theoretical significance and academic value to explore the decision-making mechanism of dividend payout policy of listed companies, to standardize listed companies'dividend payout decision-making action, to improve the quality of listed companies and to protect stock market health , sustainable and stable development.The main research work and study conclusions of this paper as follow:(1) Analysis the reasons why executives of Chinese listed company have overconfident psychological preferences. The results show that: The selectivity bias of Chinese listed company executives, the official capacity and executive level of Chinese listed company executives, the lack of supervision and restraint for Chinese listed company executives as well as don't have prefect business performance appraisal system and incentive mechanism maybe the reasons that why Chinese listed company executives have overconfident psychological preferences.(2) Bring the overconfidence psychological preference of listed company's executives into listed company's dividend payout decision-making process, on the assumption that the executives are overconfident, establish an appropriate mathematical model to study the influence mechanism of overconfidence psychological preference of executive on the dividend payout policy. The results show that: When the observed project signal value of overconfident executives is greater than the mean value, crash payout dividend level is negative correlation with the executives'overconfidence level; and when the observed project signal value of overconfident executives is less than the mean value, cash payout dividend level is positive correlation with the executives'overconfidence level. This conclusion is the expansion and deepening of the research result of Deshmukh, Goe and Howe.(3) Reference to domestic and foreign literatures about overconfidence measurement methods, take 2003-2006 executives shareholding state and dividend payout data of Chinese listed companies as sample, on the basis of use descriptive statistical methods to get the judgments that executives maybe have overconfident psychological preferences of Chinese listed companies, take appropriate econometric model to empirically study the relationship between executive overconfidence and dividend payout policy of Chinese listed companies. The results show that: In the environment of Chinese stock market, the overconfidence preference of listed companies'executives, company size and the availability of cash flow have significant positive impact on companies'dividend payout strategies, however, the corporate value growth is not significant influence companies'dividend payout strategies. This conclusion is the innovation and development of overseas related research results in Chinese stock market circumstance.