The Investor Overconfidence And Stock Trading Volume Volatility

With the development of behavioral finance, Extant studies have shown that many behavioral finance models based on the overconfidence assumption of investors can be used to explain some financial anomalies such as the volume and the volatility puzzle, the long-term reversals effect of asset returns and the short term momentum effect of asset price and so on, at the same time, the domestic and foreignal researches shown that stock market have the phenomenon of investor overconfidence. Recently, with the over-confident theory in the behavioral finance research has been widely used about over-confident investors, behavioral finance has become a focus of the financial researchers.This is a systematic study of overconfidence on the overall impact of Chinese securities market:First, we give a review of research in overconfidence at home and abroad; then we instruct behavioral finance theory, and sum up the over-confident theory, thus using the VAR econometrics method to study investor's overconfidence from the perspective of the whole market of Chinese securities market.We take advantage of STV theoretical framework get the research that Chinese securities market exist an obvious effect of overconfidence. Regardless of Chinese securities market in any state (bull or bear market), the investors are over-confident. But compared to a bear market, the bull market overconfidence effect is more apparent. In addition, the investor overconfidence cause the excess volume can lead to a certain stock return volatility. Especially, a bear market, investor overconfidence cause the excess volume to the impact of the stock returns volatility should be more apparent..