The Study On The Influence Of Exchange Rate Changes On Guiding Industry Structure Adjustment: Thinking On Two Different Perspectives

There are two different perspectives on industry structure adjustment in present,the first perspectives suggest that the industry structure can be self-improvement by market mechanism;on the contray,the latter perspective insist that in the process we should take the government's policy into consider under external environment changes.Now textile industry has been struggling, the textile industrial restructuring is unavoidable. the industrial structure adjustment can the economy internal selfimprove -ment, or it has to be done with the government policy form of guidance, the academic community still in dispute.From a theoretical point of view, the realization of the price mechanism is based on market mechanism,but the incomplete information as well as external problems caused by the phenomenon of market failure will weak the price mechanism of the effect of the impact of industrial restructuring, therefore, which can not be totally dependent on the price mechanism to achieve industrial restructuring, especially after China's reform of RMB exchange rate regime in 2005."Double swithing" policy are also suffering from the dispute, and even be regarded as a typical use of indiscriminate intervention in the economy performance, but we can not ignore the government's the leading role in industrial restructuring.The study on this subject is divieded into five sections,and the theoretical analysis is based on section 2.The analysis on the impact of industry structure, which is a implementation process, is under the conditons of the exchange rate movements, and in this process,because of some factors, weakening the exchange rate of the industrial structure adjustment.In chapter 3, this article concetates on:(1) the process on the exchange rate impact of structure restructuring ;(2) illustrate other fators that may reduce the influence in the process and consider the policy factors,such as the export drawback.On this basis, drawing on and assimilating new research method,we analyse the influence of exchange rate to industry structure zhejiang textile industry, then establish the empirical analysis model,which fully considering the influence of the limited sample and variable of different order.The result of empirical analysis has certain practical value of zhejiang textile industry and directive significance.Empirical analysis is directly related to two different perspectives on industry structure adjustment.If the impact of exchange rate effect is significant, the first perspective will be supported,which means that the exchange rate as a typical represent- ative of the market price mechanism can effectively lead to the industrial structure adjustment; otherwise, the Government's leading role in industrial restructuring will be approved in a certain sense.In research methods, the new measurement methods have the power to overcome the problems in similar study of small samples and non-stationary variables.The use of Bounds tests and ARDL analysis, has a certain practical value, for the restructuring of textile industry, Zhejiang Province also has a certain significance.In chapter 4,first we introduce the development of the zhejiang textile industry, including the ouput,total exports and the growth of the ouput in zhejiang province; Second,using Moore structure change as a measure of value of zhejiang textile industry industrial structure change and export structure change, through bounds test and ardl model,we establish the real effect of the exchange rate movement to zhejiang textile industry restructuring.Empirical result reveals that under the background of exchange rate appreciation, the adjustment of industrial structure is not a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship, especially in the model of export structure, joined the export tax rebate rate, the empirical results have certain credibility. In the exchange rate appreciation conditions, zhejiang textile industry industry development to the solution of the problem, still must rely on outside force of government administrative guidance.This conclusion and policy recommendations for this part, the empirical analysis, zhejiang textile industry, accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure policy suggestions.