The Analysis Of The Credit Rationing Influence On The Monetary Policy Transmission Of Our Country

Since the year 1997, the deflation trend appears in our country, kinds of price indexes decrease, money supply amplitude and the currency circulating speed decrease, too. Aiming at this phenomenon, our monetary authorities adopt many kinds of monetary policies. But the monetary policy affects are not ideal in the recent years. As far as the recent researches, we conclude that the choosing and using of the monetary policy tools are right on the whole, the main reason of the phenomenon lies in the block of the monetary policy transmission and the transmitting channel. So, seeking the reason for the block of the monetary policy transmission and consummating our monetary policy transmission is the main problem now. Besides, the measuring of the credit rationing is a long time existing problem in the abstract.This paper adopts the method of combining of the analysis in theory and the demonstration research. Firstly, analyze the actuality of the monetary policy transmission of our country and conclude that bank credit channel is the main monetary policy transmission channel in our country. Then analyze the unbalanced credit rationing affects to monetary policy transmission and the balanced credit rationing affects to monetary policy transmission respectively. Conclude that the credit rationing will block the monetary policy transmission. This phenomenon is more serious in the expansionary monetary policy than in the constrictive monetary policy. Based on the analysis in theory, use the self-regression distributing lag model to regress the quarterly data of the gross domestic product GDP, money supply M2, and finance payout from 1992 to the first quarter of 2007 by Econometrics software Eviews5.0. Adopt the method of simulation to calculate the threshold value of our monetary policy effects by the programming software Matlab. By comparing the imitate effects of the equation before and after adding the threshold variable, prove that credit rationing affects the monetary policy transmission. Then compare the threshold value of our monetary policy effects before and after the year 1998, and conclude that the degree of the credit rationing is waken and the credit market is extremely perfecting after the year 1998. At the end, put forward some govern solution in order to perfect our monetary policy effects.