Cause Analysis Of Recent China's Securities Market Rise

From the second half of 2007,the American loan crisis erupts comprehensively, and in the short time large quantities of Europe and America financial organizations had to fall into the difficult position even to go bankrupt, with the crisis's spread, promotes in the second half of the year in 2008 became a comprehensive financial crisis, and effect to world, our country also comes under the influence. Because of the Export-orient economy growth, our economic development has encountered a more serious difficulty facing the financial crisis,GDP in the second half of the year since 2007 starts to drop gradually and moves continually below 10%.At the beginning of 2009,the government promoted 4,000,000,000,000 economic stimulus plans facing the financial crisis,mainly concentrates in the large-scale infrastructural facilities and the disaster area construction. And also implemented the more loose monetary policy,the first and second quarter of the credit grows largely compared to the same period to stimulates the economic growth. However, the data demonstrated that in 2009 the first three quarters the GDP rate of increment was respectively 6.1%,7.9%,8.9%, but export continues murky as before,CPI and PPI were continual fall,demonstrated that the resident expended is weak, the electricity consumption started negative growth from 2008 the second half of the year and has continued to 2009 the first half of the year, while the economic data maintained murky, the property price (stock price and house price) were actually continual rising. The serious deviation between consumable price and property price that had reflected the entity economy and capital market's investment rate of return disparity is expanding unceasingly, numerous funds rush to the higher capital market, which has further enlarged the property dislocation.The loose monetary policy caused the credit quota increased range to be astonishing in the first three quarters in 2009, the M2 speed-up went far beyond the GDP growth rate from the data, as well as the negative power rate. Massive fluidity emerged in the market while the macro economic environment had not turned for better, generally speaking,the fund had not poured into the entity economy but capital markets, stock market start to rise from October of 2008 and compares last year the lowest 1664,highest increase rete surpassed 100% by july of 2009.The stock market and the economical trend appears frequently departs from each other because of the domestic stock market develops imperfect,whether it can do for the economical reflection barometer the domestic scholar's research conclusion is inconsistent,if the domestic stock market depends on"the moderate loose monetary policy"at present and needs the country to be unceasingly redundant the moderate loose monetary policy,it is does not favor stock market's healthy development of the medium and long-term.If the rise was by 4,000,000,000,000 economic stimulus plans and 7,370,000,000,000 credit capital funds enters the stock market,this will cause:The monetary policy kidnapped A Share Market,and A Share Market kidnapped the monetary policy. This kind condition of kidnaps mutually is very dangerous.To proof the A share market rise from October 2008 whether by money supply or the better of domestic economy, this article chooses Shanghai composite index and Hushen 300 indiex and take October 2008 as the division into two sectors to conduct the research,uses the descriptive statistical analysis,cointegtation examination and grainger causality test to find the real cause of stock market which rises from October 2008.This article following five part:The first part is an introduction, introduced in detail about this article research background,proposed the research question and elaborated the selected topic significance, showed this article research mentality and the article structure,summarized this article innovation and insufficiency.The second part mainly reviewed the related stock market and the money supply,economic growth and power rate research results. The scholars obtain the conclusion that the monetary policy as well as the money supply have influence to the stock index;The domestic scholars about the electric quantity and the economic indicator relational research drawn the same conclusion. The third part, the question of the research to this article has carried on the preliminary descriptive statistical analysis, inquired into the preliminary relations which between the variables.The fourth part of this article, the author has carried on the diagnosis examination analysis about the question inquired into what has caused the stock market to rise.This article selected Shanghai composite index and Hushen 300 index from august 2005 to july 2009. After selection related data, this part confirmed there are some kind of degree relations between the stock index and the money supply,power rate.We can see that different money supply to the stock market,the power rate influence will be different, M2 is more remarkable to the stock market and the power rate influence,so we mainly use M2 for the further examination.Through the Grainger causality test, in the sample sector I, money supply M2 is not the Grainger origin to stock index; But in the sample sector II, money supply M2 is the Grainger origin to stock index,well power rate GE is not the Grainger origin to stock index. The recombination cooperates the entire examination as well as the pulse response analysis conclusion may confirm that stock market's rise since October 2008 has been to a great extent because of the money supply.The fifth part gives conclusion and suggestion, proposed that the domestic stock market needs to further consummate, strengthens the stock market supervision and perfect the market mechanism. Control new fund flow in stock market, guide the fund flow in entity economy,and so on.