On China's Economic Fluctuations And Employment

With the evolution of China's reform process, the adapting degree of China's economy to market mechanism continues to deepen. The situation of products market and factors market are different in this evolution process. Labor and other factors appear lagging behind comparatively, resulting that employment is always the difficult issue in the process of economic development. Under the influence of the global financial crisis, employment has become difficult. If this issue has not been handled well, the pace of socialism construction will be slowed. People's happy life and steady work can only be on paper. From the perspective of theoretical origin, employment is a macroeconomic problem. It belongs to the research area of business cycle. The severe reality of employment requires people's sufficient attention. However, domestic research is still in the early stage, there are great space and fruitful research contents. In addition, the problems existed in business cycle study are also very obvious. This provides a broad space for analyzing employment issue on the theoretical basis of business cycle. Starting from the disadvantages of domestic research and combining with available research results, this paper will analyze employment from the perspective of China's economic fluctuations.This paper focuses study on employment from the angle of China's economic fluctuations. Through analyzing employment situation and employment policies from 1978, the thesis figures out the main influencing factors of employment with the analysis of employment growth mechanism on business cycle as the main point.Based on the above research analysis, this thesis contains four chapters. The detailed contents and arrangements are as follows. The first chapter is the part of literature reviews and evaluations. This part talks about employment theories, business cycle theories and relevant theories between economic fluctuations and employment. Firstly, employment theories contain Marx, classical school and other schools'employment theories. The theories of Keynesian School, Modern Monetary School, Neo-classical Synthesis, Neo-institutional School, Supply-side School and New-Keynesian School are concluded and evaluated in the third part. Secondly, literature reviews and evolutions of business cycle are discussed. After defining the concept of business cycle, this thesis delivers business cycle theories by Marx and western economists. Western schools here contain Keynesian School, Neo-institutional School and New-Keynesian School. These schools show their reviews of business cycle. Finally, literature reviews on relevant theories between employment and business cycle are creative part of the thesis. These theories contain Phillip curve, Okun's law and employment fluctuations theories. Chapter two mainly study on the evolution of China's employment system since 1978 and the current employment situation under economic fluctuations. First, through summarizing and concluding the stylized facts of China's economic fluctuations, this thesis delivers the positive relations between economic fluctuation and employment growth. Then, the evolution of China's employment system has been specifically analyzed. There are five economic fluctuations periods and three employment periods as told in section three of chapter two. The correlation and diversity between economic periods and employment periods are discussed in section four. The third chapter is a core part of the article with mechanism analysis of employment growth from the perspective of the economic fluctuations. Five factors that influence employment growth are analyzed in the thesis. There are economic growth, investment, technological progress, education and business cycle. The mechanism from business cycle on employment growth is the focus of this chapter. Firstly, relations between economic fluctuations and employment growth are discussed from the perspective of aggregate relations. Following that influence on employment growth by business cycle from the perspective of industrial structure is analyzed. Finally, analysis of the impact on employment growth by business fluctuations from the perspective of institutional factors is discussed in this section. Chapter four mainly delivers the policy analysis. Contents and effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy are systematically interpreted here. The article will deliver related policy recommendations of fiscal policy and monetary policy. Chapter five briefly summarizes and prospects the whole article. Then it point out the potential research directions of the subject.The main innovations of this article are:firstly, there are many independent researches of business cycle and employment while researches which combine two aspects together are a few. Secondly, under the circumstance of global financial crisis and current employment situation, research on employment from the perspective of economic fluctuations is creative. Thirdly, the stylized facts of China's economic fluctuations are analyzed specifically. Fourthly, research on employment growth mechanism of economic fluctuations from the perspective of aggregate relations, industrial structure and institutional facts is a new academic innovation. Finally, policy recommendation has a certain degree of reference value.The shortcomings of the thesis contain the following aspects. Due to the limitation. of length, time and personal ability, the research on employment is not thorough enough. Lots of data is from the research and calculating results of other scholars. Theoretical explanation and empirical analysis of employment mechanism from the perspectives of total relations, industrial structure and institutional factors do not go deep enough.