| From February 13,2007, the subordinated debt issue of America has begun to emerge. And at the same time, the risk of subprime mortgage has been increasing. In April 2,2007, New Century Financial Corp. applied for bankruptcy protection, opening a period of collective loss of Wall Street. Then the U.S. stock market began to fall, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis began to spread, which evolved into a global financial crisis rapidly.There are many reasons for the outburst of the subprime mortgage crisis in America, including both direct fuse and basic or fundamental factors. The views the mainstream economists are summarized that they consider the main reasons of the crisis are regulatory mistaken, policy lacked and risk underestimated. However, these views just analyze exogenous factors of the economic operation and don't go deep into the nature of the problem. Marxist scholars study the endogenous factors of the crisis and consider the fundamental reason of the crisis is the basic contradiction of capitalism.The impact of financial crisis on our country's economy is mainly on import and export trade, reducing wholly. The decline in export trade leads to difficult business or even bankruptcy of a large number of enterprises in the coastal regions whose production is mainly exported. Apart from this, a large number of migrant workers lose jobs.Facing the grim situation of the international financial crisis, our government has taken a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, for the aim of continuous, stable and healthy developing of the economy. Looking through the policy of our Government taken since the beginning of 2008, I consider that the principle of China's macro-control in 2009 is "Maintain growth, Expand domestic demand, Adjust the structure, Benefit the people's livelihood". The logical relationship between the four factors can be summarized as follows:"Maintain growth" is the result, "Expand domestic demand" is orientation, "Adjust the structure" is the key point, and "Benefit the people's livelihood" is the aim of these policies."Maintain growth" is the result our macro-control policy pursues at present. As a country with a population of 1.3 billion, economic growth has a more important and practical significance. "Maintain growth" is the basic requirement of scientific concept of development, the precondition of expanding employment and improving the national diathesis. The macro-economic data of the three quarters in 2009 shows our economy has being in stabilized and recovery. There is no doubt that "Ensure 8" of this whole can be achieved."Expand domestic demand" is orientation of our macro-control policy at present and for a long time. This is because that "Expand domestic demand" is the demand of the current development stage of economy, the need of responding to the present international economic situation, the basis for the transformation of economic development mode and the expression of "people-oriented". Under the action of a package of the government's economic stimulus plan, the number of investment and consumption has increased markedly. But there is still a serious imbalance in the structure of consumption and investment.In consumption, the problem of insufficient in demand has existed for a long time, which is one of the bottlenecks restricting China's economic development. In investment, the package of the government's economic stimulus plan stimulates domestic investment growth on the one hand. And on the other, the overcapacity in some industry is aggravated. Besides, the consumption of resources and environment will be more and more severe by oversized investment. In export, as a result of the global financial crisis and depression of world economy, our export-oriented economy long-term depending on external demand is badly hit. So, my view is that the main aspect of "Expand domestic demand" is to stimulate the consumer demand. The structure in "Adjust the structure" is not just industrial structure or product mix, but also covers a wider range of economic structure, including distribution structure, demand structure, urban and rural structure, regional structures, and so on. Income distribution structure is particularly important of these structures. "Adjust the structure", "Maintain growth" and "Expand domestic demand" is an interrelated and interdependent organisms. "Adjust the structure" ensure the quality and efficiency of economic growth and then expand the domestic demand. Firstly, "Adjust the structure" offers the possibility for the people's income growth in rural and poor areas; secondly, "Adjust the structure" enhances the enterprise's core competitiveness and ability to withstand risks; and at last, "Adjust the structure" makes the proportion of consumption, investment and exports in the GDP more reasonable, coping with the current international financial crisis.The ultimate goal of whether "Maintain growth", "Expand domestic demand" and "Adjust the structure" is to "Benefit the people's livelihood". "Benefit the people's livelihood" certificates the broad masses of the people to enjoy the benefits of economic and social development. In the context of the current financial crisis, "Benefit the people's livelihood" is the necessary requirement for the scientific development concept, the concrete embodiment of serving the public interests and governing for the people of our Party.Achieving the expansion of domestic demand, the government's macroeconomic control policy is needed for co-ordination. The macroeconomic control policy is the way of expanding domestic demand. The proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy taken by our government has promoted economic recovery and faced with many possible problems at the same time.In the context of the prospects for the financial crisis is not yet clear, I believe that, in order to maintain continuity in policies next year, our government is likely to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy--- of course, the regulation and control policy will be more flexible. It should be noted that the macroeconomic control policy needs further implementation on expanding domestic demand, particularly on the expansion of consumer demand and the improvement of the demand structure. The aspects can be considered as follows:Firstly, the income distribution system is needed to establish and improve and everything possible should be done to increase the disposable income of the middle and low-income people's. Secondly, the industrial structure should be adjusted. The high energy-consuming high-pollution enterprises must be eliminated. Thirdly, we are asked to pay close attention to inflation expectations and maintain price stability. And fourthly, for eliminating the worries of household consumption, building a sound social security system and solving the housing, health care, education issues are of urgency, In conclusion, in our macro-control system, we should develop high-tech industry, but also strive to expand labor-intensive service industries to promote employment growth. The road of sustainable development, depending on domestic market and low energy consumption and high efficiency, is a sensible picking in our country. |
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