Research On Finance Risk Early Warning Systerm Of Listed Private Enterprise In China

Under the background of global financial crisis and the changable business environment, China's private enterprises are facing with more and more uncertainty. Whether private enterprises can deal with such a crisis or not is a survive battle to them, and it also will affect the entire country's economic development and social stability directly. To this thought, researching firm how to control risks or financial risks will become quite important. Listed Private Company in China is in the leading role of private enterprises. Their finance operating results have a direct reflection of private enterprises and will affect all aspects of China's economic development. Therefore, the study of various risks which China's private listed company may face with, and apply a more practical approach to analyze, measure and explore its methods of controlling that kind of financial risk has a great value for all forms of organizations or enterprises in China.Comprehensive using research paradigms of comprehensive use of management and risk management, using thinking and methods of system science for reference, taking finance risk early warning of China's private listed companies as the research object , integrating qualitative and quantitative, deduction and induction, empirical study and standard, this paper tries to establish a risk early warning Mode based on P-S Method, and then gives the finance risk management methods. The main work and achievements are as follows:(A) This paper put forwards of an overview of enterprise risk management and financial risk early-warning model theoretical framework. It analyzed the composition of the risk factors and indicated that the financial risk factors are the external manifestations of enterprise risk and its transformation. Then, it targeted at the financial risk early-warning model both home and aboard. It analysis both of the theoretical and practical problems of existing early-warning model , clearly indicates the significance and practice of this paper.(B) This paper proposed the use of the P-S (possibility and satisfaction) model for financial risk early warning methods. This paper built a financial risk early warning model based on PS model using factor analysis for the China's private listed companies.(C) This paper used 191 private listed companies in China as an example of the empirical analysis. So, it presented the unity of theory and practice.(D) This paper analyzed the causes of Chinese private enterprise financial risk incentives, these causes are divided into the external environment and internal management failure. This paper also made a number of comments and suggestions according to these causes in order to prevent the finance risk of China's private listed companies.